A full week of college football is in the books, and we now have some real-time data to use. Opening-week spreads are based off team projections. The first month of any season is when bookmakers do the most adjusting. Ask any sharp handicapper and they will tell you to get them early, because by the end of the season the bookmakers have turned the spreads into a sweet science.
This weekend we look ahead to some upset winners that will carry with them some major juice. We aren’t talking about covering the spread, we’re talking about outright winners. We are giving away five selections, but hit two, and you are going to your local steakhouse for dinner Saturday night.
Friday, September 6
We went after both these teams last week and got burned, but we learned lessons. Wake Forest was lucky to win, and Rice played incredibly well against a tough Army team. If Rice can recover from all those cut blocks, the Owls can keep this one close. Eighteen is a huge number, and you may not be able to find a moneyline wager. If you can’t, take the points.
Saturday, September 7
We took UCLA outright last week, and although we lost, it was all on UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He had an awful game and looked lost out there. He finished the game 8-for-26 against a Cincinnati defense that won’t be confused with the 1986 Chicago Bears anytime soon.
San Diego State brings in a rough-and-tough defense that should give DTR fits. Look for a low-scoring affair, with San Diego State in with a chance late.
UCF has been unbeatable the last three seasons, but that run comes to an end this weekend. Ten points might be inflated because of UCF’s recent success, but Lane Kiffin brings in a revamped FAU team. The Owls had their doors blown off week at Ohio State, and who can blame them? Now they get an in-state rival that needs to be knocked off its pedestal. This may be FAU’s biggest game of the season.
FAU is dangerous, Kiffin is no stanger to the big stage and UCF isn’t what it once was.
Les Miles may ultimately be the savior for Kansas, but not right away. The Jayhawks looked good in Week 1, but this team is a long way from being back. I’ve seen them get manhandled by worse teams than Coastal Carolina, which recruits some pretty good talent down South. Kansas relied on some key takeaways last week, but without them the Jayhawks weren’t too shabby. Look for some regression in this game and for Coastal Carolina to be out for blood to defeat a Power 5 team.
Purdue is ripe for the picking in this spot, after we knocked them off last week in an upset special with Nevada. Bookmakers still believe, but they are usually pretty slow to react after only one week. Not us. We double down.
Vanderbilt has gotten better year after year. The Commodores gained some valuable experience against one of the best teams in the country last week (Georgia). The Vandy defense didn’t play poorly in the second half, and it will get a breather against a Purdue team that is much slower than Georgia.
Purdue will lose all control here and fall to 0-2.