Blackjack Odds

Gauging the odds when you bet blackjack is the key to success. It should be stated, however, that blackjack odds are generated under a wide range of variables that include the number of decks, the amount of players at the table and the rules.

In fact, blackjack table rules will always have the biggest impact on the odds.

Dealer Stands/Hits on Soft 17

A soft 17 for the dealer is dependent on the presence of an an ace or not. On some tables, the dealer is allowed to hit on a soft 17 which causes a variance of -0.22% for the player as opposed to restricting the dealer from doing this. So under most situations it’s better to sit at a table where the dealer is not allowed to hit on a soft 17.

Player Blackjack vs. Dealer Blackjack Push

On an eight-deck table, the chances of both you and the dealer hitting blackjack is increased simply by virtue of their being more combinations available to each of you. In this case, having this rule increases the player’s chance of winning by +0.35%, which doesn’t seem like a lot, but every bit counts.

There are a variety of blackjack appendixes and sites that will outline odds for the game based under certain criteria, using a variety of advanced algorithms to generate metrics like standard variance. These are extremely helpful when playing blackjack, but they are by no means necessary to enjoy success at the table.

If you are a casual player, then the best thing to do is develop a general, overall strategy that you can apply at the table instead of memorizing all the blackjack odds. As you can see, certain rules are designs to help the player while others are engineered to be beneficial for the dealer. Knowing which rules to generally avoid can be helpful in overcoming and increasing your blackjack odds.

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Dealt Hand Probability

Two Card CombinationFrequency Percentage
Natural 21 Blackjack4.80%
Hard Standing (17 - 20)30.00%
Decision Hands (2-16)38.70%
No Bust26.50%
Total (all two card hands)100%

Dealer ‘Up Card’ Odds

When a dealer places the ‘up’ card for their hand, the following odds come into play. The first column with percentages reflects dealer bust potential and the second column of percentages reveals a player’s probable advantage.

Dealer's Up CardDealer Odds of BustingPlayer Advantage

Odds of a Bust

A bust means you exceed the value of 21 with your card hand. Using the first column, quickly find the value of the first two cards you were dealt and the probability of whether you might bust if you ‘hit’ for an additional card into play.

Total Hand ValueProbability of Going Bust
11 or less0%

Probability Numbers for Decks – House Advantage Odds

The more decks that are involved at the table decreases a player’s blackjack odds, but it can also be beneficial when playing at large tables are working with multiple hands.

Compared to an eight-deck table, playing at these types of tables will increase the player’s odds:

Single-Deck = +0.44%

Double-Deck = +0.28%

Four-Deck = +0.006%

(compared to an eight-deck table)

Generally speaking, the fewer decks at the table, the better the odds are for the player. As you can see, the blackjack odds are dramatically better in a single-deck game for the player so if you’re a beginner these are the best types of games to target.

Number of DecksHouse Odds Advantage
Single Deck0.04%
Double Deck0.42%
Four Decks0.61%
Six Decks0.67%
Eight Decks0.70%