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Final Four betting trends

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March 12th, 2020

March Madness is synonymous with uncertainty, but if you look closer, you'll find several trends exist to help predict the outcome of the NCAA tournament.

Below we break down some of the key stats and figures of the Final Four based on seeding, conference, and region.

YearFinal Four teams
2019
(1) Virginia, (2) Michigan State, (3) Texas Tech, (5) Auburn
2018
(1) Villanova, (1) Kansas, (3) Michigan, (11) Loyola-Chicago
2017
(1) Gonzaga, (7) South Carolina, (3) Oregon, (1) North Carolina
2016
(1) North Carolina, (2) Oklahoma, (2) Villanova, (10) Syracuse
2015
(1) Kentucky, (1) Duke, (1) Wisconsin, (7) Michigan State
2014
(1) Florida, (2) Wisconsin, (7) UConn, (8) Kentucky
2013
(1) Louisville, (4) Syracuse, (4) Michigan, (9) Wichita State
2012
(1) Kentucky, (2) Kansas, (2) Ohio State, (4) Louisville
2011
(3) UConn, (4) Kentucky, (8) Butler, (11) VCU
2010
(1) Duke, (2) West Virginia, (5) Butler, (5) Michigan State

Final Four by conference

2019: ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC
2018: Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Missouri Valley
2017: ACC, West Coast, Pac-12, SEC
2016: Big East, ACC, Big 12, ACC
2015: ACC, Big Ten, Big Ten, SEC
2014: American, SEC, SEC, Big Ten
2013: Big East, Big Ten, Big East, Missouri Valley
2012: SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, Big East
2011: Big East, Horizon, SEC, Colonial
2010: ACC, Butler, Big Ten, Big East

Since 2010, a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference has made the Final Four six times. In 2016, both North Carolina and Syracuse represented the ACC in the Final Four, and had to face each other in the semifinal round. Future ACC member Louisville also made the Final Four both in 2012 and 2013, while Syracuse earned a spot as a member of the Big East in 2013, but joined the ACC the following year.

The Big Ten has also reached the Final Four eight times in the past decade, but no member has won it all since 2000. The Big 12 has earned a national semifinal spot in all but one (2017) of the past four Final Fours.

A team from the ACC or Big East has won eight of the past 10 NCAA tournaments.

Final Four by seed

Seeding can make or break a team's path in the tournament. It should come as no surprise at least one No. 1 seed has made the national semifinal round every year but one since 2010. The exception occurred in 2011, when No. 3 UConn, No. 4 Kentucky, No. 8 Butler, and No. 11 VCU all made up the Final Four.

No. 2 seeds fare decently as well, with seven appearances in the past decade, while a No. 3 seed has reached each of the past three Final Fours, but none from 2010-16.

A No. 11 seed is the lowest to march to the Final Four and did so most recently in 2018, when Missouri Valley member Loyola-Chicago shocked the country and emerged out of the South region. 

Winner by seed

You're in excellent shape if you earn a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. Since 2010, seven teams with a top seed have won the NCAA tournament, while one No. 2 seed hung a banner in 2016. The only other seeds to claim a national championship in that span are a No. 3 (UConn in 2011) and a No. 7 (also UConn in 2014).

Winner by region

No region has been more successful in producing a tournament champion than the South. In the last decade, six winners have come from the South, including four of the past five. Meanwhile, two champions have emerged from the East region (in 2014 and 2018), and only one winner has come out of the West and Midwest since 2010.


Now that you know the key trends, make your pick for the NCAA tournament winner at BetAmerica!

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