NCAAB Free Picks - LSU-Kentucky and Duke-Louisville!

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D.S. Williamson

February 12th, 2019

Fresh off a 10-point victory over rival Virginia, Duke heads to Louisville to take on the Cardinals on Tuesday night. Also on Tuesday, LSU battles Kentucky in a huge SEC matchup. Check out my NCAAB free picks for those two games along with previews and picks for two fantastic Big Ten contests.

[Tuesday, Feb 12]

#21 LSU Tigers at #5 Kentucky Wildcats -9 (7:00pm ET)

With a 19-4 record, LSU is third in the SEC behind 1-loss Tennessee and the squad they face on Tuesday, Kentucky. The Tigers from Baton Rouge beat the Tigers from Auburn in their last, 83-78. The victory made it 4-1 ATS over their last five games. LSU boasts one of the top point-guards in the nation in 5-foot-11 Tremont Waters. Waters averages close to 16 points and over 6 assists per.

Guard Ashton Hagans will be counted on to contain Waters. Hagans, a 6’ 3” freshman, doesn’t score a ton of points but he runs Coach Cal’s system very well. Hagans averages over 4 assists per. In Kentucky’s last outing, a win over Mississippi State on the road, he dished the rock 9 times while scoring only 8 points.

Hagans is one of the reasons Kentucky is on a roll. The Wildcats are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last 8. They’re also an excellent 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

Although UK looks tough, they’re giving LSU too many points. The Tigers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 11 versus the SEC and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Kentucky.

Waters is small but he’s got incredible vision. He can also beat anybody to the basket. He’ll keep the Tigers close enough in this for the win against the spread.

NCAAB Free Picks: LSU Tigers +9

#2 Duke Blue Devils -6.5 at #20 Louisville Cardinals (9:00pm ET)

The Cardinals had been hot. Starting with their 83-62 road win over North Carolina, Louisville had run off 6 straight SU. They had gone 5-1 ATS in the 6 games. Then, reality hit. The Cardinals are 1-2 SU and ATS in their last 3.

Louisville averages 78 points per game while only allowing 68 per. Although that looks good on paper, it won’t be good enough to keep this close against Duke. The problem with playing Duke is that the Blue Devils can adjust to however you wish to play.

If the Cardinals want to run, nobody can run quite like the Blue Devils, who average close to 87 points per. If the Cardinals wish to slow it down, Duke is equally effective in the half-court as they are running up and down the court.

The Blue Devils are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last 7. They are on a 4-0 ATS streak. Duke has been unreal in those last 4 games. UVA was the only team that broke 70 against them while the Devils scored at least 80 points in all 4.

Louisville won’t keep this close. Duke’s playing like a machine and are definitely using this week's matchups as a set of statement games ahead of March Madness. The Dookies dominate.

NCAAB Free Picks: Duke Blue Devils -6.5

#11 Purdue Boilermakers pk at #25 Maryland Terrapins (6:30pm ET)

The Boilermakers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8. They’ve gone a winning 4-3 ATS in 7 away games while averaging close to 79 and allowing less than 69 per.

Maryland, though, could be sitting on another SU win after pummeling Nebraska 60-45 on the road in their last. The Terrapins appear slightly better on defense, holding opponents to only 40% from the field and 32.5% from three.

Boilermakers show the hot trends save for being 1-4-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. But, Maryland looked like a different team dominating the Cornhuskers. They’ll do enough for the home SU victory.

NCAAB Free Picks: Maryland Terrapins pk

#12 Michigan State Spartans at #23 Wisconsin Badgers pk (7:00pm ET)

If you’re a Michigan State fan, you had to be smiling after the Spartans broke a 3-game losing streak with the 79-55 win over Minnesota in their last. The Spartans are a good enough team to beat Wisconsin on the road, but before backing Sparty realize that the Badgers have been on a 6-0 SU and ATS streak before the 52-61 away loss to Michigan in their last.

Wisconsin has one of the top defenses in college hoops. The Badgers allow an average of less than 61 points per. Opponents shoot less than 40% from the field and less than 31% from three.

Michigan State is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. However, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings while the Spartans are 2-5 ATS in the last 7. Badgers claw Sparty on Tuesday night.

NCAAB Free Picks: Wisconsin Badgers pk