2018 Frisco Bowl Betting Favors Bobcats Against Aztecs
2018 Frisco Bowl - Ohio Bobcats (8-4) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (7-5) Wednesday, December 18th - Frisco, Texas - 8pm ET (ESPN) Betting Line: Ohio -3.0 (54.0)This game has near even betting action five days before kickoff with MAC entrant Ohio taking slightly more action than their 2018 Frisco Bowl betting rivals.
Ohio’s strength under Solich is running the football, as the Bobcats run for 6.3 yards per rush against FBS opponents to rank No. 4 in the country. At 272.7 rushing yards per game, the Bobcats bring one of the nation’s top-7 rushing attacks against Long’s stout 3-3-5 scheme. San Diego State allows just 98.3 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per rush vs. FBS foes to rank top-4 in the country. But Ohio has been even stronger as the season progressed, rushing for an average of 346.2 yards at 7.1 yards per rush over their last six games.
So it’s 'strength vs. strength' in this bowl match-up, or seemingly so. The stats don’t tell the entire story about San Diego State, who finished the season on a 1-4 SU/ATS slide as the defensive numbers deteriorated allowing at least 23 points in each of their final five games. Early season wins over bowl teams Arizona State and Boise State as an underdog were impressive, but the Aztecs were over-achieving under Rocky Long’s leadership. Still, the underdog in SDSU’s games went 11-1 ATS only failing in the opening week when the Aztecs were beaten by Stanford 31-10 in a game that was just 9-7 at halftime with SDSU a 14-point road underdog.
Ohio’s strength of schedule is one of the weakest of all bowl teams, and they allowed 26.2 points per game vs. FBS opponents while facing more wide-open offenses in the MAC. The Bobcats have the edge at quarterback along with the running game for an offense that scored at least 49 points in five of their final six games. If Ohio can control the ball, clock and chains, then they should win. But San Diego State’s defense, special teams and strength of schedule provides support for the Aztecs. Close call in this coin-flip game, but San Diego State gets the nod.
Key ATS Stats: MAC teams are 13-27 ATS in bowl games the last five seasons, and Mountain West teams are on a 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS bowl blitz against MAC opponents.
2018 Frisco Bowl Pick – San Diego State +3.0
Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.