ACC football picks: Clemson vs. NC State & 4 more

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

November 7th, 2019

Clemson Tigers
-32.5 (-108)
O 53.5 (-111)
North Carolina State Wolfpack
+32.5 (-112)
U 53.5 (-109)
Every season a major college football program plays a game that sticks in the minds of fans, poll voters and gamblers. It usually involves some level of dramatics or is played on national television in a prime-time slot. This year that game was Clemson’s narrow victory against North Carolina back in Week 5. Although the Tigers are statistically comparable to last year’s national championship team, they sit fifth in the first College Football Playoff rankings.

Ever since that North Carolina game, Clemson has steamrolled its competition and is 3-1 against the spread. The Tigers' only recent loss ATS was last week against Wofford as 48.5 point favorites (they still won by 45). Clemson’s mediocre performance against North Carolina set the stage for an undervalued team worth wagering on.
Against NC State, a team that is just 2-6 ATS and 92nd in the country in points scored per game, Clemson once again finds itself head and shoulders above its competition. NC State is unable to protect the quarterback against average teams and will find things even tougher against Clemson.

Clemson is 45 points better than NC State and should cover with ease once again.

Pick: Clemson -32.5

Notre Dame (-8) at Duke, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network

Notre Dame showed plenty of hangover from the Michigan game against Virginia Tech, but the Irish still battled back for the win. The problem moving forward, however, is they are now without their starting right guard and right tackle. Expect a well-coached Duke team to play tough enough to cover.

Pick: Duke +8

Louisville at Miami (-6.5), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Miami looked impressive against rival Florida State, but the Hurricanes are just 1-5 ATS following the Florida State game in recent years. The Cardinals should capitalize, and while they likely don’t have enough to win, they will compete to the end.

Pick: Louisville +6.5

Wake Forest (-2.5) at Virginia Tech, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network

Wake Forest is one of the few pleasant surprises in the conference this year and continues to be underrated, despite a prolific offense. The Demon Deacons are significantly more efficient than Virginia Tech.

Pick: Wake Forest -2.5

Florida State at Boston College (-2.5), Saturday, noon ET, ACC Network

FSU is now without a coach, and there has to be plenty of whispering in the locker room about what’ is next. Fortunately for the Seminoles long-time assistant Odell Haggins has a fatherly, calming influence and will undoubtedly motivate the team in his interim position. I expect FSU to rally behind Haggins and use the passion from both the loss to Miami and their coach being terminated to beat a mediocre Boston College team. Going on the road will probably be a good thing.

Pick: Florida State +2.5

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