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ACC Week 7 picks: Louisville vs. Notre Dame & 3 more

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

October 15th, 2020

Louisville will try to break out of a dismal, three-game losing streak when it heads to South Bend to take on No. 4 Notre Dame.

We have betting odds and a pick for that marquee matchup, as well as three more Week 7 games featuring ACC teams.

Louisville vs. #4 Notre Dame 

Sat, October 17 2020, 6:30 PM

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Spread

-16.5

Moneyline

-710

Total

O 64

Louisville Cardinals

Spread

+16.5

Moneyline

+485

Total

U 64

In 2019, Louisville debuted new coach Scott Satterfield, formerly of Appalachian State, and finished a successful campaign with a 8-5 record (second in the ACC Atlantic, behind Clemson).

It was a promising turnaround for a program that endured a couple rough seasons, following Lamar Jackson’s departure, and with quarterback Malik Cunningham set to return in 2020, there were hopes of continued progression. In the preseason, Louisville was picked to finish fourth in the conference and debuted in the Week 3 AP Poll at No. 18.

After it the season with a 35-21 victory against Western Kentucky, Louisville has dropped three straight, and heads into Week 7 with serious defensive question marks.

On the other side of the field, Notre Dame enters 3-0 but just 1-2 against the spread. The Irish opened as 14.5-point favorites and have been bet up to 16.5.

Notre Dame has been one of the more affected teams by COVID protocols and restrictions, and its return to the field against Florida State demonstrated some of the weaknesses that come when a team experiences a significant break in practice time, most notably turnovers and big plays surrendered on defense through scheme breakdowns.

Despite the early struggles, Notre Dame is giving up 4.6 yards per play over its three games this season, while Louisville’s defense has given up 6.6 yards per play over its last three. Louisville will have to shore up defensive-scheme issues if it wants to have any hope of slowing down the potent Notre Dame offense.

Louisville is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games as road underdogs, and I don’t foresee them toughening up on defense against four-year starting quarterback Ian Book.

Pick: Notre Dame -16.5


#1 Clemson vs. Georgia Tech

Sat, October 17 2020, 4:00 PM

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Spread

+27.5

Total

O 63.5

Clemson Tigers

Spread

-27.5

Total

U 63.5

Clemson got its first cover of the year, against Miami last weekend. The final score was closer than the game really was, and now Clemson heads on the road to play 2-2 Georgia Tech.

Georgia Tech has a talented young quarterback in Jeff Sims, but he has thrown eight interceptions and just five touchdowns. Clemson will capitalize on the inevitable mistakes the young player will make against such a talented roster.

Pick: Clemson -27.5


Virginia vs. Wake Forest

Sat, October 17 2020, 8:00 PM

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Spread

+2.5

Moneyline

+110

Total

O 59.5

Virginia Cavaliers

Spread

-2.5

Moneyline

-135

Total

U 59.5

Virginia heads to Wake Forest for an afternoon kickoff, with both teams at 1-2 straight up and 2-1 ATS.

Virginia has been outscored 54-0 in the first quarter of their three games this season and is second to last in the conference at third-down conversion percentage.

Wake Forest struggles to stop teams on third down, but Virginia has quarterback question marks. Brennan Armstrong is in concussion protocol and has failed to force the ball down the field even when healthy.

Wake Forest is rested, healthy, and 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.

Pick: Wake Forest +2.5


#5 North Carolina vs. Florida State

Sat, October 17 2020, 11:30 PM

Florida State Seminoles

Spread

+14

Moneyline

+360

Total

O 64

North Carolina Tar Heels

Spread

-14

Moneyline

-485

Total

U 64

Florida State has one of the worst defenses in the country , but it has found some degree of competency on offense with Jordan Travis at quarterback. North Carolina is potent offensively but hasn’t shown a strong defense.

The market is still undervaluing a Florida State team that, while not good, is at least now competing under a new coach and QB.

Pick: Florida State +13.5


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