Big 12 football picks: Oklahoma State at #12 Texas & 3 more

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September 20th, 2019

The Oklahoma State Cowboys will visit #12 Texas Saturday in a showdown between two of the best offenses in college football. Elsewhere, West Virginia will hit the road to face Kansas, and Rice will try to not get blown out for the second straight week at home against Baylor.

Oklahoma State at #12 Texas (-6.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Oklahoma State
+6.5 (-110)
O 72 (-110)
-6.5 (-110)
U 72 (-110)
This should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend, as the top rusher and receiver in the nation will face off against one of the top quarterbacks in college football.

Oklahoma State has won the last four meetings in this series, but three of those wins were by only a field goal. This time is different for the Longhorns, because they have finally found a quarterback. Sam Ehlinger is one of only three quarterbacks in the nation with at least 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. He has also already set the school record for passing yards in the first three games of the season. However, the Texas offense is balanced, as the Longhorns have rushed for more than 148 yards per game.
The Cowboys offense is loaded with weapons at nearly every position. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has completed 67% of his passes this season, with seven touchdowns and only one interception. They also have the top rusher (Chuba Hubbard) and top receiver (Tylan Wallace) in the nation.

However, while the Longhorns have proven themselves against good opposition, Oklahoma State has played a very weak schedule. The Cowboys struggled to throw the ball in the first half against Tulsa last week, as Sanders had only 43 yards and they trailed 21-20 at the break. A strong second half led to a comfortable win, but it shows Oklahoma State's consistency is not where it needs to be.

The home crowd should help the Longhorns defense get some stops, and special teams should give them an edge, as kicker Cameron Dicker has already nailed two 50-yard field goals this season. The favorite in this matchup has gone 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. Look for that trend to continue.

Pick: Texas -6.5

West Virginia (-4.5) at Kansas, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+

This time last week, this matchup was shaping up to be a battle to avoid being the worst team in the Big 12. After each pulled off an upset last weekend, however, the winner will move to 3-1 and might begin to harbor thoughts of a bowl game. Kansas' weakness on defense is its secondary, which suits a Mountaineer offense that threw for 272 yards last week against NC State.

It is also unlikely the Jayhawks will repeat their dominant rushing performance of last week, given West Virginia is allowing fewer than five yards per carry this season and has allowed just two runs (out of 167) of more than 20 yards.

Pick: West Virginia -4.5

SMU at #25 TCU (-9), 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1

TCU has rushed for over 270 yards per game, but quarterback Max Duggan has struggled, and he completed less than 40% of his passes last week. SMU ranks in the top 25 in both passing and rushing. I’ll go with the more balanced team in what should be a close game.

Pick: SMU +9

Baylor (-26) at Rice, 7 p.m. ET, CBSSN

Baylor’s defense is allowing fewer than 16 points per game, while its balanced offense is averaging more than 500 yards per game. Rice will not be able to slow the Bears down, nor will they be able to score enough to keep it close.

Pick: Baylor -26

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