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Big 12 football Week 5 picks: TCU vs. Texas & 4 more

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

October 1st, 2020

Week 4 of the Big 12 college football season saw one massive upset as Oklahoma fell at home to Kansas State. Texas also needed a miracle comeback to eke out a too-close-for-comfort win at Texas Tech.

As we head into Week 5, let's look at the marquee matchup in the Big 12 between TCU and Texas and make a selection for the other four games on the conference schedule.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns, Noon ET, FOX

Sat, October 3 2020, 4:00 PM

Texas Longhorns

Spread

-11.5

Moneyline

-455

Total

O 63

TCU Horned Frogs

Spread

+11.5

Moneyline

+340

Total

U 63

The Longhorns enter this game coming off a stunning 15-point comeback over the Red Raiders last week to win in OT. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are coming off a disappointing three-point home loss in their season opener to the Iowa State Cyclones.

Since TCU joined the Big 12 in 2012, the Horned Frogs have dominated this rivalry, winning six of the eight matchups, including a 10-point upset victory last October. In that game, TCU quarterback Max Duggan threw for 273 yards and two touchdowns to go along with 72 yards rushing and another major. Duggan should return to the starting lineup as he only played the second half in last week’s defeat. Texas quarterback and Heisman hopeful, Sam Ehlinger, threw four interceptions in that matchup.

TCU is only returning 68% of their defensive production from last season. In addition, TCU is just 2-8 ATS following a loss to a conference opponent. I expect Texas to bounce back from a disappointing defensive performance last week and to come out strong.

NCAAF pick: Texas -11.5


Baylor Bears vs. West Virginia Mountaineers, Noon ET, ABC

Sat, October 3 2020, 4:00 PM

West Virginia Mountaineers

Spread

+3

Moneyline

+120

Total

O 53.5

Baylor Bears

Spread

-3

Moneyline

-145

Total

U 53.5

The Mountaineers are entering this game coming off a loss at Oklahoma State, where they out-gained their opponents and controlled time of possession. The problem was they could not convert in the red zone. West Virginia had two red zone trips and another where they reached the 22-yard line, but only managed to put six points up on the board in those three instances.

Baylor smoked Kansas last week and is hoping to continue their success as they hit the road. In the past three seasons, Baylor is 7-3 ATS in road games and 4-1 ATS as a road favorite. Meanwhile, West Virginia is 1-3 ATS in the past three seasons as a home underdog. I like the Bears to pull out a road victory here.

NCAAF pick: Baylor -3


Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Kansas Jayhawks, 3:30pm ET, ESPN

Sat, October 3 2020, 7:30 PM

Kansas Jayhawks

Spread

+21.5

Moneyline

+775

Total

O 53.5

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Spread

-21.5

Moneyline

-1400

Total

U 53.5

Both of these teams have had disappointing starts to the season for different reasons. The Cowboys are 2-0, but both wins were ugly and they've struggled to get going offensively. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks are 0-2, and have surrendered 85 points to two unranked teams.

Oklahoma State has won 10 straight matchups over Kansas. Currently, the Jayhawks are allowing over 4.6 yards per carry and they have yet to face anyone like Chuba Hubbard. Oklahoma State also has been utilizing LD Brown, who is averaging 8.2 yards per carry. It's hard for me to bet a spread at a number that is the same number of points that team averages per game. I'll just stick with the Under here as Oklahoma State should dominate on the ground.

NCAAF pick: Under 53.5 points


Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Kansas State Wildcats, 3:30pm ET, FS1

Sat, October 3 2020, 7:30 PM

Kansas State Wildcats

Spread

-2.5

Moneyline

-140

Total

O 64

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Spread

+2.5

Moneyline

+115

Total

U 64

Both teams enter this matchup with a 1-1 record in extremely close games. In fact, the combined margin of victory in all four games is only 16 points. Another common denominator in these four games is the number of total points. Each of the games featured 68, 119, 66, and 73 total points.

Texas Tech and Kansas State combine to average 922.5 yards of total offense per game and allow a combined 1041.0 total yards per game. The Over has hit in four of the past five matchups between these two teams. This number just seems too low given how they've started the season. Give me the Over all day.

NCAAF pick: Over 64 points


Oklahoma Sooners vs. Iowa State Cyclones, 7:30pm ET, ABC

 

Sat, October 3 2020, 11:30 PM

Iowa State Cyclones

Spread

+7

Moneyline

+220

Total

O 62.5

Oklahoma Sooners

Spread

-7

Moneyline

-280

Total

U 62.5

The Sooners look to bounce back from a shocking defeat last week as they travel to Iowa State this Saturday night. The Cyclones got a big bounce back win on the road last week after a disappointing loss to start their season.

Oklahoma has dominated this series, winning the last 10 matchups straight up. However, Iowa State has covered the last four games ATS. Over the past three seasons, the Cyclones have thrived in the underdog role and in the month of October. They are 7-3 ATS as an underdog and 3-0 ATS as a home underdog. They are also 6-1 ATS in the month of October. Meanwhile, the Sooners have struggled as favorites in that timeframe. They are 11-16 ATS as a favorite and 3-5 ATS as a road favorite.

I believe the Cyclones will be ready for this big game and will keep it close throughout.

NCAAF pick: Iowa State +7

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