Big 12 Week 6 picks: Texas vs. Oklahoma & 2 more
Week 5 of the college football season saw yet another upset in the Big 12, as Texas went down at home to TCU. Oklahoma also lost, which gave the Sooners back-to-back, regular-season defeats for the first time since 1999.
This really puts a damper on the championship consequences of the Red River Showdown on Saturday, but both teams will be desperate for a win.
As we head into Week 6, let's look at the marquee matchup in the Big 12 and make a selection for the other two games on the conference schedule.
Oklahoma vs. Texas
Sat, October 10 2020, 4:00 PM
A game that was expected to be a playoff-caliber matchup between two title contenders is now a desperation game for both.
Oklahoma has not lost three consecutive games in a season since 1998, the year before Bob Stoops took over and turned the program around. Texas needs to win out for any hope at a College Football Playoff spot.
The Sooners have dominated this series in the past 10 years. They have won eight of the last 11 matchups. However, the Longhorns have dominated this series when only Texas is ranked. They are 10-3 in those situations, but the last time only Texas was ranked in a game between these two was 2005.
Both teams have been bad against the spread this year and both defenses have struggled to make stops. The Over would be the obvious pick at first glance, but 72 points is a ton. This number hit only three times in the last 12 matchups.
I cannot see Oklahoma losing three consecutive games. Since the spread is low enough that you are almost just picking a winner, I will take the Sooners.
Who will win the Red River Showdown?
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
Sat, October 10 2020, 7:30 PM
Iowa State Cyclones
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Cyclones bounced back from a disappointing loss to Louisiana-Lafayette with wins against TCU and Oklahoma. The Red Raiders enter off back-to-back losses to Texas and Kansas State.
Iowa State has won four consecutive games against Texas Tech and covered the spread in all four.
Iowa State thrives in the month of October. In the past three seasons, the Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in October. They are also very good after the Oklahoma game. The last time they failed to cover the spread in the first game after playing Oklahoma was in 2014, when they finished the season 2-10.
Texas Tech has a bad defense and showed inconsistencies on offense last week.
I like the Cyclones to roll on.
Kansas vs. TCU
Sat, October 10 2020, 8:00 PM
TCU Horned Frogs
Kansas State Wildcats
Much like Iowa State, Kansas State has bounced back from a disappointing loss to open the season, against Arkansas State. The Wildcats upset Oklahoma, then took down Texas Tech with relative ease.
The Horned Frogs started the season with a close loss to Iowa State and then upset Texas on the road last week. Both teams are trending up and should make for an exciting game Saturday.
In the past three seasons, Kansas State is 13-6 ATS as an underdog, 7-3 ATS as a road underdog, and 8-3 ATS in road games. In the same period, TCU is 6-11 ATS as a favorite, 2-7 ATS as a home favorite, and 4-9 ATS in home games.
The spread is just too high, considering how well Kansas State has played.