College Football Week 11 Picks - Top Saturday Games Revealed

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D.S. Williamson

November 7th, 2018

There are almost too many important games with major consequences, so bear with me as we preface my College Football Week 11 picks with a little background. There's only a handful of weekends left before the end of the regular season, and the fate of so many top-10 teams is yet to be decided. Can anyone join Clemson and Alabama in the Top 4?

A couple of teams showed up on the cusp to get into the Top 4 after the Selection Committee released this week’s College Football Playoff Rankings. #6 Oklahoma must put a beat down on rival Oklahoma State to leapfrog #5 Georgia. Even if Oklahoma does demolish their inter-state rivals, Georgia controls their own destiny.

The Bulldogs battle top rival Auburn on Saturday. Both #4 Michigan and #3 Notre Dame get free passes this week because the Wolverines take on Rutgers while the Irish host down-on-their-luck Florida State. Analyzing the Notre Dame contest is worth it because they’re giving Florida State a ton of points.

The one other team that could position itself for a run back into the Top 4 is Ohio State. The Buckeyes can beat a ranked team on the road this week in #18 Michigan State. If Ohio State then upsets #4 Michigan, they’ll make a strong case to get ahead of the Wolverines, Georgia, and any other 1-loss team in front of them in the CFP Rankings.

Check out analysis on the most interesting and important battles in my very own College Football Week 11 picks!

Saturday, Nov. 10

#10 Ohio State Buckeyes -3.5 at #18 Michigan State Spartans

The Buckeyes haven’t covered a spread since beating Tulane 49-6 on Sep. 22. Michigan State’s gone 3-1 ATS in their last 3. They also played rival Michigan tough until the second half where they yielded 2 touchdowns in their lone non-cover. Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, but the traveling team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The door’s open for Ohio State to get back into the CFP discussion, and Ohio State is about to waltz right through.

College Football Week 11 Picks: Ohio State -3.5  

South Carolina Gamecocks at #15 Florida Gators -6.5

The wheels are off the Gators’ go-cart after suffering their second straight loss, this time to Missouri in Week 10. Florida is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a double-digit loss at home, though. The Gators are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7. I believe that Florida coach Dan Mullen really gets on his team after the poor performance versus Mizzou. He's a great coach that was brought in to lead this program through this specific type of adversity. I’m going Gators to cover.

College Football Week 11 Picks: Florida -6.5

TCU Horned Frogs at #9 West Virginia Mountaineers -11.5

West Virginia went all out to beat Texas in Week 10. The Mountaineers shouldn’t suffer a letdown. One of the reasons why is because they face a Horned Frogs squad that’s gone 0-6 ATS in their last 6. WVU has an excellent 3-1 ATS record at home. Trust the trends.

College Football Week 11 Picks: West Virginia -11.5   

Wisconsin Badgers at #20 Penn State Nittany Lions -9

The Badgers are a terrible covering team, going 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Penn State’s 1-3 ATS in their last 4 as well. A couple of big trends push me to recommend taking the points in this: Penn State is 2-13-2 ATS in their last 17 following a straight up loss and Wisconsin is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 on the road. Badgers can beat the Nittany Lions straight up even without quarterback Alex Hornibrook.  Take the points if you’re worried but I'm going big in the upset department here.

College Football Week 11 Picks: Wisconsin +290  

Oklahoma State Cowboys at #6 Oklahoma Sooners -19.5

The Sooners are only 3-3 ATS at home. Oklahoma could be tired after a win over Texas Tech in Week 10. This is a rivalry matchup where the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Sooners appear to be facing another over inflated home spread. I'm more than willing to go against the grain here.

College Football Week 11 Picks: Oklahoma State +19.5

#16 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide -24

Alabama’s a covering machine, going 6-3 ATS on the season and beating the line three games in a row. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 at Alabama while the Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record. Bama will make it 4 SU and ATS wins in a row.

College Football Week 11 Picks: Alabama -24

#8 Washington State Cougars -6 at Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado’s reeling after losing their fourth straight after the Week 10 loss to Arizona. Washington State finally lost a game ATS. But, they won the game and with an impressive victory over the Buffaloes, the Cougars would remain in the CFP discussion. The Cougars won’t blow that chance.

College Football Week 11 Picks: Washington State -6

#24 Auburn Tigers at #5 Georgia Bulldogs -24

The highlight matchup of the week has Auburn hoping to end Georgia fans’ hopes of making it to the CFP this season. The Bulldogs own the Tigers based on trends:  Georgia is 8-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record, and 7-1 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record while Auburn  is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Georgia. Although trends point to a Bulldogs cover, it’s hard for me to give a team like Auburn 24 points. I don’t think the Tigers are 24 points worse than Georgia. I’ll back the Tigers.

College Football Week 11 Picks: Auburn +24

Florida State Seminoles at #3 Notre Dame Irish -17.5

Notre Dame escaped Indiana with a win over Northwestern and now find themselves in a great position to solidify their spot in the CFP Top 4. Florida State is 2-8-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. Notre Dame should beat FSU by around 24 points on Saturday.

College Football Week 11 Picks: Notre Dame -17.5

#2 Clemson Tigers -20 at #17 Boston College Eagles

I want to go to the head-to-head trends when Clemson battles BC on Saturday. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, but the Tigers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The dog is also 4-1 ATS in the last 5. Clemson’s on fire against the spread, but trends point to Boston College keeping this close. I’ll take that huge box of points the oddsmakers have left out.

College Football Week 11 Picks: Boston College +20