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College Football Week 12 Picks - Saturday Rundown!

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D.S. Williamson

November 14th, 2018

Only two teams stand in undefeated Notre Dame’s way to a College Football Playoff berth. In Week 13, the Irish must defeat rival USC in Los Angeles. Although that should be a tough game for Notre Dame, it most likely won’t be anywhere near as difficult as this Saturday’s battle with the Syracuse Orange. Syracuse has turned out to be the second best team in the Atlantic Coast Conference after CFP darling Clemson. The Orange ride a 4-game win streak into their duel with Notre Dame. If the Irish can protect their home field, they’ll stamp their ticket to the College Football Playoff unless USC pulls off the massive upset in Week 13. Syracuse, on the other hand, will be looking to be an upset specialist in College Football Week 12 picks as a double-digit dog.

Like Notre Dame, Central Florida is also undefeated. While Notre Dame’s a lock if they win their final two regular season games, UCF needs a lot of help to get into the CFP Top-4 even if they win out. Central Florida faces a tough team in the Cincinnati Bearcats in Week 12. The Knights could be all out to beat their upset-minded AAC rivals.

A couple of other big games on Saturday go down in the Big 12 when West Virginia travels to Oklahoma State to battle the Cowboys and Iowa State heads to Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns.

Check out an analysis of all the top College Football Week 12 Saturday action below, and good luck!

Saturday, Nov. 17

Arkansas Razorbacks at #16 Mississippi State Bulldogs -16.5

The Razorbacks have only won 2 games this season, but they’ve been much better against the spread in their last 6, going 5-1 ATS. Although Mississippi State had no shot versus Alabama in Week 11, they should bounce back with an SU victory on Saturday. The Bulldogs also have a great shot at covering because they’re 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 following an ATS loss.

College Football Week 12 Picks: Mississippi State -16.5

#18 Michigan State Spartans -2 at Nebraska Cornhuskers

Nebraska’s improved in their last 3, going 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS. However, the trends point to a Michigan State cover. The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. The Cornhuskers have gone 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 following an ATS win and 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 home games. I’m backing Michigan State. Nebraska's lack of consistency worries me.

College Football Week 12 Picks: Michigan State -2  

#10 Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5 at Maryland Terrapins

Ohio State’s cover in the win over Michigan State in Week 11 was their first ATS victory in their last 6 efforts. The Buckeyes face a sneaky tough Terrapins squad on Saturday. Maryland has gone 4-1 ATS  in their last 5 following an ATS loss. Not only that, but there’s no way Ohio State isn’t already thinking of their massive matchup with rival Michigan State in Week 13. Maryland’s the play with a juicy number.

College Football Week 12 Picks: Maryland +14.5   

#14 NC State Wolfpack -16 at Louisville Cardinals

Some handicappers feel Louisville will step it up because the Cardinals finally rid themselves of Bobby Petrino. But, Louisville’s 1-9 ATS and it’s hard to see them suddenly caring about playing football just because their head coach has left the building. NC State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Wolfpack should bounce back after the tough home loss to Wake Forest last Saturday with a win and cover here. I still like NC State as a bit of an NCAAF betting darling.

College Football Week 12 Picks:  NC State -16

#16 Utah Utes -7 at Colorado Buffaloes

Utah’s gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 while Colorado rides a 5 game losing streak and a 1-4 ATS streak into this matchup. The Utes remain the best team in the Pac 12 South Division. Colorado’s a mess after starting the season 5-0 SU, going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Utah should roll to an easy win and cover.

College Football Week 12 Picks: Utah -7

#13 Syracuse Orange at #3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish -10

Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book’s listed as probable, but even if Book plays, the Irish should have a tough time covering versus a solid Syracuse squad. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS on the road. The Orange are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 following a straight up win, and they're the best team Notre Dame’s played since Week 1 when they faced Michigan. I love Syracuse, who should most definitely cover, but I also feel like the Irish’s undefeated season ends on Saturday. I'm willing to go big and back Syracuse ripping off a huge upset.

College Football Week 12 Picks: Syracuse +320 ML

#9 West Virginia Mountaineers -4.5 at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oklahoma State beat West Virginia 50-39 last season. The score shouldn’t reach 89 points again because the Mountaineers allow less than 21 per this season having shored up their defensive miscues. WVU is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 on field turf, and 4-01 ATS in their last 5 following a straight up win of more than 20 points. I like Will Grier to continue his Heisman resurgence on Saturday against a soft line as road favorites.

College Football Week 12 Picks: West Virginia -4.5  

USC Trojans -3.5 at UCLA Bruins

This season’s USC-UCLA game will have no bearing on who wins the Pac 12, but it’s still a massive rivalry. USC is 1-3 both SU and ATS in their last 4. UCLA is also 1-3 ATS and SU in their last 4. Making things more confusing are the head-to-head results, where the Trojans are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings at UCLA. These teams are almost mirror copies of each other. I’ll back UCLA on the moneyline because USC doesn’t have a single advantage in the matchup.

College Football Week 12 Picks: UCLA +150

Cincinnati Bearcats at #12 UCF Knights -7.5

Although UCF is undefeated, the rival Bearcats only have a single loss in the AAC. Whomever wins this game is likely to win the American Athletic Conference East Division. Cincinnati has a real shot to pull off the upset because they allow less than 15 points per game on average, but there are few teams in the conference that can post points the way the Knights do. UCF has the edge in the trends, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 overall. The Knights should pull out a win and cover but Cincinnati won't make it easy.

College Football Week 12 Picks: UCF -7.5

#22 Iowa State Cyclones at #19 Texas Longhorns -3

Iowa State’s been on a tear. The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU in their last 5. Texas ended a 2-game losing streak in Week 11, but they’re only 2-2-1 ATS this season. However, the Longhorns are 12-5-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record. I’m siding with the Horns and distancing myself from an Iowa State team that has been plucky against the line, but isn't totally reliable when traveling.

College Football Week 12 Picks: Texas -3  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
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