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College football Week 3 upset watch: Georgia Tech will topple UCF

Profile Picture: Jason Ence

September 18th, 2020

College football had an exciting first two weeks of action, and there were multiple upsets leading to solid paydays for sports betters. We're back to break down the action in Week 3, and help you find some upset picks where you can get a solid return on your moneyline investment.

Let’s look at the four games most likely to end with an upset this weekend.

#17 Miami at #18 Louisville

Sat, September 19 2020, 11:30 PM

Louisville Cardinals

Spread

-2.5

Moneyline

-130

Total

O 64.5

Miami Florida Hurricanes

Spread

+2.5

Moneyline

+105

Total

U 64.5

Our first game would not be a major upset, but Miami is actually the underdog as they head to Louisville this weekend. Both teams enter the College Gameday matchup fresh off a win last week. The Hurricanes defeated UAB 31-14, while the Cardinals took care of business 35-21 against Western Kentucky.

Both teams had issues they need to clear up from opening week, but Louisville’s might be more concerning. The Cardinals gifted fourteen points off special teams mistakes, and we have seen early this year that special teams are the biggest area for errors with lessened practice time. They also struggled to move the ball at times in the second half against the Hilltoppers, and Miami will provide a tougher test to that offensive attack.

As for the Hurricanes, they moved the ball at will on the ground but threw for only 155 yards on 26 attempts. D’Eriq King will have had another week to acclimate himself with his new receiving corps, and will provide a tougher test than the Cardinals faced a week ago when they allowed Western’s QB to rush for four yards per carry. If he can put up some numbers in the air, Miami could easily head home with a victory in a game that should feature plenty of exciting quarterback play.

Houston at Baylor

Sat, September 19 2020, 4:00 PM

Baylor Bears

Spread

-3.5

Moneyline

-165

Total

O 61.5

Houston Cougars

Spread

+3.5

Moneyline

+135

Total

U 61.5

Baylor comes off a terrific 11-3 season, but they do so without departed head coach Matt Rhule. They also lost Denzel Mims as the wideout headed to the NFL, but return multiple weapons including quarterback Charlie Brewer. Defensively, they have a rebuild ahead of them, and even if they gel quickly, many expect them to take a step back from their stellar performance of last season.

This is good news for a Houston squad that replaces the aforementioned King at quarterback, as Clayton Tune will need to limit his turnover numbers from last season when he threw nine interceptions against 11 touchdowns. His stud WR Marquez Stevenson will need to step up against the Baylor secondary for them to have a chance to win this game.

Baylor could take home the victory, but Houston’s defense will not be the pushover it was last season after many major additions in the offseason. While their offense will put up points, if the Cougars can get a few stops, it will put pressure on the Bears’ defense to make some plays. I like this game to be closer than many expect, and look for Houston to be in the game at the end with a chance to win.

#14 UCF at Georgia Tech

Sat, September 19 2020, 7:30 PM

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Spread

+7.5

Moneyline

+225

Total

O 62.5

Central Florida Knights

Spread

-7.5

Moneyline

-280

Total

U 62.5

The Yellow Jackets took down Florida State last week, and will look to add a second upset win to start the season when they host UCF. The Golden Knights had a terrific season in 2019, and are looking to open their campaign the same way. Their high-powered offense was second in the nation in yardage last year, and is led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel. He returns many of his weapons from a year ago, including his two favorite targets in the passing game and three solid running backs.

Georgia Tech’s defense showed last week that they were much improved, but it was their offense that surprised everyone. After being a triple-option team for as long as most can remember, they have made a switch to a more balanced style of play, and it worked better than many expected. They threw for 277 yards against the Seminoles, and quarterback Jeff Sims also added more than 60 yards rushing.

UCF’s offense is a bit of a system-based attack, and there may very well be some rust in their first game. If Georgia Tech can disrupt that system, it could lead to a long day for the Golden Knights.

UCF has lost five of their last seven games, and have lost 10 of their last 13 against teams from the ACC. Look for the Yellow Jackets to make a push for yet another upset this weekend.

Wake Forest at NC State

Sun, September 20 2020, 12:00 AM

North Carolina St Wolfpack

Spread

-1

Moneyline

-115

Total

O 53

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Spread

+1

Moneyline

-105

Total

U 53

Wake Forest comes into the game fresh off a defeat last week, but they easily covered the number in a 37-13 defeat to Clemson. They put up decent numbers in the passing game, but were unable to generate anything on the ground. Wake Forest will expect that to change this week, and if they are able to get the ground game going, it should lead to some solid offensive output against an NC State defense that was among the worst in the nation in passing yardage allowed last season.

Meanwhile, the Wolfpack enter the game hoping to shut down the revolving door of quarterbacks they had last season, when four different players took snaps as they went 4-8. They had one of the worst offensive units in the conference, and lost seven of their last eight contests. Devin Leary will be the starting quarterback this year, and the sophomore will hope that Zonovan Knight can build on a great freshman campaign and help them churn out yardage and keep their defense off the field.

Wake Forest doesn’t have the greatest offense, but they showed last week that they can move the ball through the air, throwing for nearly 300 yards against Clemson. That should be more than enough to put up points on the Wolfpack, and the added pressure on the suspect NC State offense will likely be their downfall.

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