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College football Week 5 upset watch: Auburn has Georgia's number

Profile Picture: Jason Ence

October 2nd, 2020

Last week saw a pair of big upsets, as both LSU and Oklahoma suffered painful losses to double-digit underdogs. Bettors who were bold enough to pick Mississippi State were paid out nicely, while you could not even place a moneyline wager on the Wildcats.

Let’s find a few underdogs who could provide you with a solid return on your investment in Week 5 of college football!

#7 Auburn vs. #4 Georgia, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Sat, October 3 2020, 11:30 PM

Georgia Bulldogs

Spread

-7

Moneyline

-260

Total

O 45

Auburn Tigers

Spread

+7

Moneyline

+205

Total

U 45

There is a lot of SEC flavor in this week’s edition of the upset watch, and let’s start with the biggest game of the conference slate. Auburn defeated Kentucky 29-13 last weekend behind a strong second-half passing attack, as Bo Nix threw for 233 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers.

While the Bulldogs’ defense will be a tougher test than the one he faced against Kentucky, he will likely have learned some lessons from their matchup last season where he went 30/50 for only 245 yards. Seth Williams, who was big against the Wildcats, had 13 catches for nearly half of those yards last season, and should be the primary target against a Georgia secondary that has lost key pieces this offseason.

Georgia struggled in the first half last weekend against Arkansas, trailing 7-5 at halftime. A 22-point third quarter blew the game open, aided by a turnover giving them a short field followed by a pick-six on the ensuing drive for the Razorbacks. The Bulldogs had only one scoring drive that went sixty yards or longer in the entire game, an 81-yard, 13-play drive in the fourth quarter.

If the Tigers can do what they did last weekend and avoid turnovers, and force Georgia to put together long drives, it could be just enough for them to pick up the victory.

Missouri vs. #21 Tennessee, 12:00 p.m. ET, SEC Network

Sat, October 3 2020, 4:00 PM

Tennessee Volunteers

Spread

-13

Moneyline

-475

Total

O 48.5

Missouri Tigers

Spread

+13

Moneyline

+350

Total

U 48.5

Missouri was blown off the field last weekend by Alabama, as everyone expected. That said, I think they are better than they looked, and quite frankly I am not sold on Tennessee. The Volunteers have covered just twice in their last eight home games when favored, and only once in their last seven games have they covered the number against a team with a losing record.

The Volunteers have a history of underperforming under coach Jeremy Pruitt, and last week they barely beat South Carolina in a game where they were favored by a touchdown. They failed to convert on 11 of their 12 third-down conversions, with their sole conversion coming on a spectacular one-handed catch. In the end, it took a horrible miscue on special teams by the Gamecocks to seal the victory.

Many believe Missouri to be a much better team than the Gamecocks, and not only are they unlikely to cover the number, they may very well fall victim to the Tigers.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky, 4:00 p.m. ET, SEC Network

Sat, October 3 2020, 8:00 PM

Kentucky Wildcats

Spread

-5.5

Moneyline

-225

Total

O 61.5

Mississippi Rebels

Spread

+5.5

Moneyline

+180

Total

U 61.5

Kentucky was expected to be a run-first juggernaut behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. Instead, they rushed for less than 30 yards in the second half, called 10 more pass plays than run plays, and were unable to keep up with Auburn as they fell 29-13 last weekend.

Now they face-off against Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin, who will be licking his chops at how badly Auburn exposed the Wildcats secondary in the second half. Seth Williams had his way, including "Mossing" Kentucky’s best corner for a humiliating touchdown catch to seal the game. The Rebels threw for more than 400 yards against a Florida secondary that is much more talented than the one they will face this weekend.

If the Wildcats are unable to run the ball and control the clock then they'll surely fall to 0-2.

#18 Oklahoma vs. Iowa State, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Sat, October 3 2020, 11:30 PM

Iowa State Cyclones

Spread

+7

Moneyline

+220

Total

O 63.5

Oklahoma Sooners

Spread

-7

Moneyline

-280

Total

U 63.5

The last time the Sooners lost consecutive regular season contests, people were worried their electronics were going to shut off from the Y2K bug. While it’s unlikely that streak will end, you have to be concerned about a repeat of last week when they not only failed to cover a four-touchdown spread, but lost outright to the Kansas State Wildcats.

Freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler will need to avoid throwing interceptions against an Iowa State defense that is allowing 277 yards through the air per game this season. The Cyclones have covered the spread in five of their last 10 meetings against the Sooners. If they are able to do so again, it might put enough pressure on the young signal caller to force him into more mistakes, as his three picks sealed the Sooners’ fate last week.


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