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NCAAF Week 12 SEC Betting - What To Do In Mississippi

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Jay Ginsbach

November 16th, 2018

Two big Week 12 SEC betting matchups go down involving the big programs from Mississippi. The Bulldogs are giant favorites against a struggling Razorbacks squad, while Ole Miss will try to rally on the road as a natural road dog up the road at Vanderbilt. These are two games with completely different personalities. Let's dive right in and see where your money should be flowing on the Mississippi river.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi State -21.5 (46.5)

On the surface this SEC match-up looks like a blowout. But there is risk laying three touchdowns, not only with a low posted total, but with the Mississippi State offense lacking scoring punch.

Both teams enter off a loss, and Mississippi State was shut out by No. 1 Alabama 24-0 at home with just 169 total yards. That was a poor performance for the Bulldogs, who have now dropped to No. 21 in the current college football playoff rankings. Natural thinking is that Mississippi State will bounce back with anger and determination to dominate an inferior foe. But the Bulldogs offense presents a risk laying these big numbers in Week 12 SEC betting, as Mississippi State has scored 7 or less points in four conference matchups this season.

The Bulldogs defense is dominant however, allowing just 14.3 points per game vs FBS opponents to rank No. 5 in the country. The Bulldogs defense would appear to be able to slow an Arkansas offense that managed just 16 rushing yards and 216 total yards at LSU last week in a 24-17 defeat. Arkansas is also averaging just 22.1 points per game against FBS opponents to rank 101st in the country, tied with Mississippi State’s sluggish offense. The advantages for the Bulldogs are not only home field, but on defense as Arkansas allows 34.1 points per game vs FBS foes and is winless in SEC play.

Still, do you want to lay 21 points with a Mississippi State team that was just shut out, has scored 7 points or less in four SEC games and is averaging just 22.1 points per game? I didn’t think so.

NCAAF Week 12 SEC Betting Pick - Arkansas +21.5

Mississippi Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores -3 (67.5)

With the Egg Bowl next week between Mississippi State and Ole Miss, let’s take a look at the Mississippi match-up at Vanderbilt in Week 12 that kicks off at 7:30 ET. A victory by Ole Miss secures a bowl bid prior to their rivalry game vs. Mississippi State next week.

Ole Miss (5-5) still needs one more victory to become bowl eligible, and we think they get it this week at Vanderbilt as a small underdog. A very tough loss for bettors that backed Ole Miss (+13) last week in a 38-24 loss at Texas A&M. The game was tied in the fourth quarter and Ole Miss had a number of chances to score touchdowns to take the lead or secure the cover. Even so, following an onside kick late by Ole Miss, Texas A&M broke a 46-yard touchdown run for the win and cover. The Rebels played well in defeat, and their deficient defense played better than the score would indicate.

Vanderbilt (4-6) has to win out to earn a bowl bid, but losing four of their last five games has to be disappointing. But a bigger disappointment for the Commodores has to be blowing a 28-16 lead late in the third quarter in a 33-28 defeat at Missouri last Saturday. Vanderbilt has now allowed at least 30 points in four of their last five games. In this match-up, Ole Miss has a positive and better yards-per-play differential than Vanderbilt, which is a strong ATS situation when supporting the underdog. The Rebels passing attack is explosive with big, dynamic receivers and QB Jordan Ta’amu passing for 3,374 yards on the season . They will move the ball on Vanderbilt through the air, and also on the ground as the Commodores have shown signs of wearing down and have allowed an average of 246 rushing yards per game over their last three contests.

NCAAF Week 12 SEC Betting Pick - Ole Miss +3.0
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