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NCAAF Week 13 Betting Guide

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

November 19th, 2019

Ohio State will get its first real test of the season this Saturday when it hosts Penn State at the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes have only tangled with two nationally-ranked opponents in 2019 and should have their hands full with a Nittany Lions squad that has squeaked out victories over Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota and is holding opponents to just 14.2 points per game.

We have odds and a preview of that highly anticipated Big Ten grudge match as well as several other critical Week 13 games in our latest NCAAF Betting Guide.

Wager on all Week 13 NCAAF action at BetAmerica!

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TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Penn State Nittany Lions
+18 (-112)
+585
O 56.5 (-110)
Ohio State Buckeyes
-18 (-108)
-915
U 56.5 (-110)
*All odds are subject to change.

The game to decide the Big Ten East takes place on Saturday as Penn State travels to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State has been elite at every level, steamrolling their way to a 10-0 straight up record and 8-2 record against the spread. They are first in the nation averaging 51.5 points per game in a defense-oriented conference, and are tied for first in the nation in points given up per game at 9.8. They are beating teams by an average of 41.7 points per game.

As a result of their dominance, Ohio State is instilled as an 18-point favorite against their top 10 opponent, Penn State. Penn State has had an impressive season themselves and sit 9-1 overall and 5-5 against the spread. Penn State’s wins have come on the strength of their defense and gritty play from underclassman QB Sean Clifford and WR KJ Hamler. The dynamic duo has great chemistry, and Hamler is nearly uncoverable in open field by a single defender.
Unfortunately for Penn State, Hamler sustained an injury in their last game against Indiana. While his status is day-to-day, it’s fair to question if the brilliant athleticism he’s shown this year will be reduced if not altogether left on the bench in this critical matchup. Ohio State’s defense was already in a position that it could have likely keyed on the playmaker, but the truth is that the Buckeyes defense is so well-rounded it may not have even needed to. Star defense end Chase Young returns from suspension and his two weeks off will likely just have him recharged and motivated to harass Clifford all day.

While it seems absurd at first glance that a top 10 team could be this big of an underdog, a deeper investigation reveals it is warranted. Ohio State has been far and away the best team in the country thus far, and Penn State has shown weakness in recent games against Minnesota and Indiana. The wagering spread outcome will likely be determined by Penn State’s defense and whether it can return to form to provide Ohio State their toughest resistance of the year.

Bet on Penn State vs. Ohio State here.




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TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Texas Longhorns
+6 (-109)
+180
O 59 (-112)
Baylor Bears
-6 (-111)
-225
U 59 (-108)
With Week 13 upon us, many preseason wagers and predictions can already be graded. In the Big 12, this means Texas will not only have no chance to win the conference as second favorites, they will fail to reach the nine wins or more that was set as their regular season win total. Sitting at 6-4 straight up (and 5-5 against the spread), it’s fair to say that Texas supporters hoped for a better 2019 campaign. They come into Week 13 as underdogs.

For Baylor, any wagers on the “over” regular season win total of seven are long-since winners, and wagers on them to win the conference are still in play despite a crushing defeat last Saturday at home and on primetime to perennial conference powerhouse, Oklahoma. Baylor enters Week 13 at 9-1, and is 6-4 against the spread. While any national championship aspirations were crushed after blowing a 28-3 lead at home, Baylor still has plenty of commendable goals in front of them. A rematch vs. Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship is still in play, and considering they are just two years removed from a 1-11 season that should serve as plenty of motivation for the Bears to bounce back this week and continue their quest for a full program revival.

Texas suffered a bit of a heartbreaking loss last weekend after battling back from a 20-7 deficit to lose on a last-second field goal against Iowa State, 23-21. And while the majority of the game illustrated their weaknesses, the fourth quarter also highlighted their strengths. Texas has spent the entirety of the 2019 season learning how to consistently move the ball on offense behind a new offensive line and with a banged up group of running backs. They have still managed to win games on the strength of QB Sam Ehlinger’s arm and legs and with dynamic weapons on the outside.
Baylor has had a steady offense behind QB Charlie Brewer, but the question heading into this game will be whether Baylor can bounce back after such an obvious emotional rollercoaster last week. Baylor will also have to cope with weapons on the outside from Texas that may give them similar difficulties as those presented by Oklahoma in the pivotal second half in Week 12.

Baylor has been the better team in 2019, but a letdown in this spot wouldn’t be surprising.

Bet on Texas vs. Baylor here.






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TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Michigan Wolverines
-9 (-110)
-340
O 53.5 (-109)
Indiana Hoosiers
+9 (-110)
+265
U 53.5 (-111)
One of the more fascinating games on the entire card takes place this Saturday when Michigan heads to Indiana in a matchup of second-tier Big Ten teams. Apologies to fans of each for such a categorization, but with Ohio State doing what it’s doing, it is simply the truth. The good news for both programs, however, is that second-tier in the Big Ten still makes for impressive football.

Michigan is 8-2 overall and 6-4 against the spread. Despite an early-season thrashing against Wisconsin and a close-fought loss on the road at Penn State, Michigan has spent the latter half of the season playing much improved football and will almost certainly pose a threat to Ohio State in the big game to close out their season. As a result of their improvement, Michigan finds itself a favorite on the road against the Hoosiers.

For Indiana, a 7-3 straight up record is matched by a 7-3 record against the spread, making them a bit of a fan favorite among bettors. A large reason for Indiana’s success has been their new offensive identity. Head coach Tom Allen is in his third full season leading the program, and despite being a defensive-minded coach, he has a first-year offensive coordinator, Kalen DeBoer, who is proving an effective counterpart. Aside from the expected results of their matchup with Ohio State, the Indiana offense behind QB Peyton Ramsey has been consistently scoring points and giving them momentum.
When these teams face each other on Saturday, only Michigan is the one that theoretically has an opportunity to still play for a Big Ten championship with a win. And Indiana will be coming off a physical game against Penn State that ended a four-game win streak. All things considered, Michigan does have more blue chip and NFL-caliber talent on the roster. And yet, things feel different with this Indiana team. They could have quit on the road against Penn State down double digits. They could have lived up to normal Indiana expectations after losing Week 5 to Michigan State to go to 3-2, but they haven’t. These are two teams that have shown a lot of heart this season, and will make Saturday’s matchup a great one to watch and wager on.

Bet on Michigan vs. Indiana here.




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  • Home teams have won 65% of all games SU in 2019
  • Home favorites have won a staggering 83% of all games SU in 2019
  • Teams ranked in the AP Top 25 went 15-2 SU against unranked opponents in Week 11
  • 51% of all games have gone UNDER the projected total in 2019
  • Underdogs were 21-34-0 ATS in Week 12 and are 340-358-11 overall in 2019
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Game DateSpreadO/U
Western Carolina vs. #5 Alabama
Sat, November 23
N/A
N/A
#8 Minnesota vs. Northwestern
Sat, November 23
NW +13.5
38.0
Samford vs. #12 Auburn
Sat, November 23
N/A
N/A
Illinois vs. #20 Iowa
Sat, November 23
IOWA -14
48.0
Boston College vs. #16 Notre Dame
Sat, November 23
ND -19
62.5
Texas State vs. #25 Appalachian State
Sat, November 23
APP -28.5
52.5
SMU vs. #23 Navy
Sat, November 23
NAVY -3.5
66.5
Purdue vs. #14 Wisconsin
Sat, November 23
WIS -23
47.5
#18 Memphis vs. South Florida
Sat, November 23
USF +14.5
59.5
Arkansas vs. #1 LSU
Sat, November 23
LSU -44
70.5
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Nick Saban has been criticized for playing Tua Tagovailoa in Saturday's 38-7 drubbing of Mississippi State, but he insists he had no reason to believe his star quarterback would succumb to injury.



Jalen Hurts gave his Heisman odds a boost on Saturday by leading Oklahoma to a 25-point come-from-behind victory over Baylor.
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LSU quarterback Joe Burrow increased his stranglehold on the Heisman Trophy over the weekend by throwing for 489 yards and five touchdowns against Ole Miss. Here are three things you should know about the Tigers senior:



  • Burrow was born to play football. His father, Jimmy, and his older brothers, Jamie and Dan, all played varsity football at Nebraska.
  • Burrow is also a sensational basketball player. The former point guard earned All-State honors at Athens High School and received several mid-major offers to play college basketball.
  • Burrow is far more than just a jock. The 22-year-old was a two-time Academic all-Big Ten Conference honoree at Ohio State and is currently pursuing a master's degree in liberal arts.





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