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NCAAF Week 9 Betting Guide

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

October 22nd, 2019

Just when you think you've got college football figured out, Lovie Smith and the Illini come along and turn everything upside down. Illinois pulled off one of the greatest upsets in recent memory on Saturday by upending #6 Wisconsin 24-23 on a last-second 39-yard field goal. Not bad for an overlooked team that entered the game as 30.5-point underdogs.

Week 9 is just days away and we can hardly wait to see which underdogs will bark loudest. Our latest NCAAF Betting Guide has you covered with hard-hitting insight and analysis on some of this week's most eagerly anticipated games as well as the latest trends and storylines from across the U.S.

Wager on all Week 9 NCAAF action at BetAmerica!

Quicklinks

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Wisconsin
+14 (-110)
+440
O 50 (-110)
Ohio State
-14 (-110)
-625
U 50 (-110)
*All odds are subject to change.

This time last week, Wisconsin vs. Ohio State in Week 9 had a bit more luster, but after Wisconsin’s shocking upset loss to Illinois some of the drama seems to have been taken out of this Big Ten matchup. Wisconsin had been steamrolling opponents up until their Illinois game but got caught in a very clear look-ahead spot when losing as 31-point favorites. Rather than the 10-point “live dogs” we thought this matchup would be, the consensus now seems to be that Ohio State will be too powerful for their Big Ten West opponent and the spread outcome will be wherein the interest lies.

Entering their game against Ohio State, the Badgers find themselves as 14 point underdogs. Wisconsin is 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread. On the other side of the field is arguably the most dominant college football team in 2019, with Ohio State sitting at 7-0 straight up, 6-1 against the spread, and perhaps most impressively, a 348-56 (+292 differential) scoring margin for the year. It isn’t often that a Top 5 national power like Ohio State has such a dominant record against the spread as they tend to get public money and books like to inflate prices a bit to accommodate for that, and yet here we are.
For this matchup, Wisconsin will call on their reliable offensive line and star running back Jonathan Taylor to slow things down and control the ball, but it very likely won’t be enough. A good defense and solid running game that can win time of possession makes for a dangerous underdog, but Ohio State has tremendous talent and is finding the right ways to use it. They combine explosive plays with steady power to make defenses cave and the Wisconsin defense doesn’t appear strong enough to stop that trend. Wisconsin will be playing for their season after its disappointing loss to Illinois, but it very likely won’t be enough against the Buckeyes juggernaut.

Bet on Wisconsin vs. Ohio State here.




TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Auburn
+10 (-110)
+305
O 58 (-110)
LSU
-10 (-110)
-400
U 58 (-110)
The CBS schedulers did a poor job not ensuring Auburn vs. LSU became a primetime national game, but there’s no doubt plenty of eyes will be tuned in to watch #2 LSU face off against #9 Auburn in Week 9’s game of the week. LSU comes into this game as arguably the most impressive overachiever of the year, sitting at 7-0 straight up and 5-1-1 against the spread. Auburn has been no slouch either, sitting at 6-1 straight up and 6-1 against the spread. Their only loss of the season was on the road at #10 Florida.

LSU is rising to greatness on the strength of Heisman candidate QB Joe Burrow. Burrow has been transcendent this year, utilizing his myriad weapons at all the right times in LSU’s decimation of the opposition. In LSU’s last big game, against Florida, Burrow continually executed when it mattered most, including a decisive 54-yard pass to Ja’Marr Chase that will certainly be played on the highlight reel in New York at the end of the season.
For Auburn, defense has been their calling card, but the offense appears to have been jump started in a blowout win against Arkansas last week as well. Whether freshman QB Bo Nix will be able to handle the LSU talent and intensity will likely decide the game. Against Florida, Nix showed he wasn’t yet ready for the big time.

And despite many commentators deeming Auburn’s defense as arguably the best in the country, these teams find themselves with fairly similar stat lines on that side of the ball. Auburn has given up 319 yards per game while LSU has given up 319.4 yards per game. With LSU having a significant edge on the offensive side of the ball and comparable strength on defense, the Tigers of LSU appear poised to continue their undefeated run. Auburn will offer plenty of resistance, but on the road in Baton Rouge it will be shocking if Nix and company find a way to outscore this season’s star.

Bet on Auburn vs. LSU here.




TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Notre Dame
+1 (-109)
+100
O 50 (-109)
Michigan
-1 (-111)
-120
U 50 (-111)
In the ABC primetime game, two longtime national powers face off in a rivalry that’s always fun to watch for the longtime followers of college football. The 5-2 Michigan Wolverines are narrow 1 point favorites at home against the 6-1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Michigan is a disappointing 3-4 against the spread while Notre Dame is 4-2, but Michigan is on a two-game covering streak while the Irish have covered three straight.

The line on this game opened with Michigan as 4-point favorites and quickly plummeted to Michigan -1. It wouldn’t be shocking if the line continues its downward swing and ends up as a pick or even with Notre Dame favored. By various reports, it seems that Notre Dame has at least two-thirds of the action from bettors thus far. It isn’t often that sportsbooks this late in the season are wildly off in their numbers on teams, and a lot of this line movement appears to be based off early season perceptions of each team.

Bettors are still sour to Michigan’s early season failures against Wisconsin and Army, but last week against Penn State they showed a lot of heart battling back from down 21-0 to cover the spread. QB Shea Patterson leaves the pocket too early, appears unsettled when he does stay in it, and has not developed into the elite passer many had hoped. But the Michigan defense is still good enough to keep them in any game, and this will likely be especially true when playing at night in the Big House.
For Notre Dame, QB Ian Book is leading the team and having a good year protecting the ball with 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Their only loss was a heartbreaker on the road at national title contender Georgia, a game that proved Book and his squad can handle the big moment. At first glance, Notre Dame “seems” like the better team. And yet, Michigan has the better defense and is playing at home. This looks like the most competitive game of the week and it should make for a fascinating Saturday night.

Bet on Notre Dame vs. Michigan here.




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  • Home teams have won 69% of all games SU in 2019
  • Home favorites have won a staggering 86% of all games SU in 2019
  • Teams ranked in the AP Top 25 went 15-3 against unranked opponents in Week 8
  • 53% of all games have gone UNDER the projected total in 2019
  • Underdogs were 32-29-1 ATS in Week 7 and are 241-252-10 overall in 2019
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Game DateSpreadO/U
#16 SMU vs. Houston
Thur, October 24
HOU +13.5
67.0
#5 Oklahoma vs. Kansas State
Sat, October 26
KSU +23.5
57.5
#20 Iowa vs. Northwestern
Sat, October 26
NW +10.5
37.5
#21 Appalachian State vs. South Alabama
Sat, October 26
USA +24.5
52.5
#6 Penn State vs. Michigan State
Sat, October 26
MSU +6
43.5
Maryland vs. #17 Minnesota
Sat, October 26
MINN -16
55.5
Oklahoma State vs. #23 Iowa State
Sat, October 26
ISU -10.5
64.5
Arkansas vs. #1 Alabama
Sat, October 26
ALA -32
55.0
Boston College vs. #4 Clemson
Sat, October 26
CLEM -33.5
58.5
#24 Arizona State vs. UCLA
Sat, October 26
UCLA +4
55.5
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Lane Kiffin is $5,000 poorer after the NCAA penalized him for his controversial blind ref meme. The Florida Atlantic coach lashed out afterwards saying, "We have freedom of speech, but I guess around here there’s no such thing as freedom to tweet."



We don't mean to "upset" Wisconsin fans, but Lovie Smith and the Fighting Illini deserve plenty of credit for their shocking 24-23 victory over the Badgers.


LSU QB Joe Burrow was the butt of his own joke on Saturday afternoon when a Mississippi State defender inadvertently pulled down his pants while trying to tackle him.
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True freshmen like Auburn QB, Bo Nix, have been all the rage in college football this season as they've lead their teams to stellar records while putting up eye-popping stats. Here are three of the greatest true freshman seasons in NCAAF history:



  • Hershel Walker, Georgia (1980): Opposing defenses had no answer for Walker in 1980, as the rugged running back ran for 1,616 yards and 15 touchdowns. His overall brilliance is a big reason why the Bulldogs bulldozed their way to a national championship.
  • Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma (2004): Peterson rushed for 100 yards or more in his first nine games as a Sooner and racked up 1,925 yards and 15 TDs in his first season in Norman.
  • Ron Dayne, Wisconsin (1996): Yup, another running back. "Great Dayne"rushed for 2,109 yards and 21 touchdowns in 1996 and was named MVP of the Copper Bowl after leading the Badgers to a convincing 38-10 win over Utah.





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