Top 5 NCAAF mammoth spread busters for Week 12

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November 15th, 2019

We almost hit another straight-up winner last week with East Carolina, but unfortunately that was our only cover last week. Do not fret, though. We are going to get back on track this week. The underdogs will bark back in Week 12! All games Saturday.

Massachusetts (+41) at Northwestern, noon ET, Big Ten Network

I just cannot learn my lesson with the Minutemen. They have dropped to 1-9 ATS after another blowout loss last week to Army. However, the Wildcats are 1-8 overall and 2-7 ATS, and yet they are a 41-point favorite! This is just absurd, and if UMass cannot cover this one, I am going to call them the worst FBS team of all time. This is a strange trend, but Northwestern still plays on a grass field, and since 2017 UMass is 6-1 ATS playing on a grass field. This is only the second time all season that Northwestern has been favored in a game. In Week 1 the Wildcats defeated UNLV by 16 points, which failed to cover the 19.5-point spread. I just cannot fathom a team that has lost eight consecutive games winning this one by more than 41 points.

Wake Forest (+34) at Clemson, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

The Tigers are rolling right now, with five consecutive wins by 31 points or more. The Demon Deacons are coming off a bad loss at Virginia Tech, where they lost by 19 points in a game they were favored to win. I truly believe that was a result of looking ahead to this Clemson game. Wake Forest is a good team and it will give Clemson its first tough game since a near loss to North Carolina.

Louisiana Lafayette at South Alabama (+28), 5 p.m. ET, ESPN+

The Ragin Cajuns have had an excellent season, at 7-2 overall and 8-1 ATS. The Jaguars are struggling at 1-8 overall, but they are 5-4 ATS and covered four of their last five games. South Alabama has a history of covering spreads when they are in the midst of a losing streak. Since 2017 the Jaguars are 4-0 ATS coming off three straight losses against conference rivals and 6-1 ATS coming off three straight losses to anyone. In the short history of matchups between these two teams (seven games), no game has been decided by more than 22 points. I like the Jaguars to keep this game around 20 points and cover. In addition, their quarterback can do this.

LSU at Mississippi (+21.5), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Tigers are coming off a major win over Alabama, while the Rebels have lost three of their past four games. Ole Miss, however, has covered in five of its past six games. LSU may have a bit of a struggle coming off such a difficult schedule over the past month, and the Rebels have yet to give up more than 29 points at home. But even if Ole Miss can hold LSU to around 31 points, the Rebels will need to muster around 10-13 points. Only Auburn has held Ole Miss to fewer than 17 points. I predict LSU will get off to a slow start, and the Rebels will cover at home.

New Mexico (+28) at Boise State, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Just looking at records and nothing else, this may seem like a bad pick. The Lobos are 2-7 and the Broncos are 8-1. However, New Mexico has only lost one game by more than 14 points and that was early in the season at Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Boise State has struggled in its past three games. The Broncos lost to BYU and only won games over San Jose State and Wyoming by a combined 13 points. The Lobos have a balanced offensive attack and are averaging 200.2 rushing yards per game and 218.7 passing yards. New Mexico will keep this game low scoring enough to cover the 28 points.