Top 5 NCAAF mammoth spread busters for Week 13

November 22nd, 2019

There are only two weeks left in the regular season and the underdogs are ready to finish strong! All games previewed are Saturday.

Kansas (+24.5) at #22 Iowa State, noon ET, Fox Sports regional networks

Kansas may be the best bad team in the nation, if that makes any sense. The Jayhawks are 3-7, but they only have three losses by more than this spread. One of those games was to Oklahoma, but they still covered the spread in that game. They also only lost to Texas by two points and Oklahoma State by 18 points. Since 2017 the Jayhawks are 8-3 ATS off a road loss, and Iowa State is 5-7 ATS as a home favorite in that same span. The Cyclones have not won a game by this large a margin since October 5 against TCU. The Jayhawks have been kind to me this season in these monster-spread games, and I predict that kindness to continue Saturday.

Boston College (+20.5) at #16 Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m. ET, NBC

The Eagles come into this game needing one more victory to assure a bowl trip. The Fighting Irish come into this one off routs of Navy and Duke in back-to-back weeks. BC has some strong trends on its side. Since 2017 the Eagles are 6-1 ATS as road underdogs and 5-0 ATS after they allowed 37 points or more in their last game (allowed 38 to Florida State). Notre Dame is 4-6 ATS in November games since 2017. I like BC to keep this game interesting.

Purdue (+24.5) at #12 Wisconsin, 4 p.m. ET, FOX

The Boilermakers come into this one off a bye and carry a two-game win streak after a terrible start to the season. Purdue has also outplayed expectations in its other games against quality Big Ten opponents. The Boilermakers only lost by seven points to Minnesota, six points to Iowa and 28 points (covered the spread) to Penn State. Wisconsin has not dominated an opponent since an October 12 dismantling of Michigan State. Since 2017 Purdue is 12-4 ATS as an underdog and 8-3 ATS in games played on turf. Give me the Boilermakers all day here.

Arkansas (+43.5) at #1 LSU, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

Arkansas is terrible, and we all know it. LSU is the best team in the nation, and we all know it. Nevertheless, 43.5 points in a conference rivalry is just insane. The Razorbacks have never lost by more than 32 points in the 63-game history of this rivalry, and they have not lost by this margin this season. Auburn and Alabama both won by 41 points against Arkansas, but that seems to be the max this team can lose by. I think the margin will stay around 30 points and Arkansas will cover.

Miami-Florida vs. Florida International (+20.5) at Marlins Park, 7 p.m. ET, CBSSN

This game is all about trends for me. Since 2017 FIU is 5-1 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest (last played November 9), 5-2 ATS off a loss to a conference rival and 8-3 ATS when playing a team with a winning record. In that same time period, Miami is 1-7 ATS off a home win against a conference rival and 11-18 ATS as a favorite. Last season the Panthers only lost by 14 points to a much better Miami team. The Hurricanes will be on upset alert in this matchup.