Week 1 of college football is in the books, including a 4-1 start if you followed my spread busters last week. As I mentioned last week, many overrated and underrated teams show up in lopsided spreads early in the season. In Week 2 you'll get some overreaction spreads based on how teams looked in Week 1. Here are my favorite big underdogs of Week 2.
The Black Knights will bring their triple option offense into Michigan on Saturday afternoon. This spread may be higher than expected, because of Army's disappointing Week 1 performance against Rice. Army was a large favorite, but only snuck away with a 14-7 victory. However, the Black Knights are 8-2 ATS after a loss against the spread in the last three seasons. I expect Army to come out a little more polished in this one and control time of possession. Last week both teams combined for 101 rushing attempts, so the clock should be moving Saturday. Army will keep it close for a large portion of the game to cover the spread.
After a 1-11 season Central Michigan now has former Florida coach Jim McElwain at the helm. He got off to a nice start with a win last week, and the Chippewas scored 38 points with a balanced offensive attack against Albany. Wisconsin may be overrated in this spread, after an impressive 49-0 Week 1 win over South Florida. The Badgers are 2-8 ATS in the last three seasons following a win by 21 points or more. The Chippewas are 9-4 ATS in road games, while the Badgers are 5-9 ATS in home games in the past three seasons. This spread is just too high.
This game may seem to be bucking my trend of not overreacting to Week 1 results, but Louisiana-Monroe brings a strong rushing attack against a Florida State defense that just allowed 214 yards on the ground to Boise State. The Seminoles scored quick and early last week, but it did not matter, as they went scoreless in the second half. Some second-half adjustments by the defense was all it took to shut them down. Give the Warhawks a whole week to check out that tape and Florida State could be in trouble. Louisiana-Monroe is 5-0 ATS in the past three seasons following a home win and Florida State is 1-7 ATS in the past three seasons in September games.
This spread stems from the 70-point beat down Penn State put on Idaho last week. However, Buffalo is not Idaho and will bring a rushing attack that amassed 285 yards last week. Idaho only managed four yards rushing last week. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS as an underdog in the past three seasons. I like them to keep this game close enough to make some noise and cover.
Before I saw this spread, I figured it would be an overreaction game. Oregon is coming off a last-second loss to Auburn, and Nevada had a comeback victory over Purdue. I would have expected this spread to be around 14 points and I would be all over Oregon. I was wrong. Twenty-four points is a large spread considering Nevada's offensive firepower. It is also a different type of offense than Oregon just faced against Auburn. The Wolfpack had 52 pass attempts compared to only 31 from Auburn last week. I believe in an Oregon comeback week, but 24 points in this high-scoring affair will just be too many to cover.