Top 5 NCAAF mammoth spread busters for Week 9

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October 24th, 2019

Last week we had another pick win straight up! Illinois pulled off the upset of the season as a 31-point underdog with a victory over Wisconsin. We also had another 4-1 week, and the underdogs are rolling. Here's to another week of underdogs hitting hard with Week 9 spread busters (all games Saturday).

Bowling Green (+27.5) at Western Michigan, noon ET, ESPN3

Bowling Green got off to a horrible start to the season, but the Falcons have turned things around recently with a win over Toledo and an OK showing against Central Michigan last week. Western Michigan just lost to Eastern Michigan last week, and there may be a little hangover effect here. The Broncos do not have a great rushing defense (184.3 rushing yards per game), so if the Falcons can get their running game going, they should be able to keep this one close. The last time Western Michigan defeated Bowling Green by this large of a margin was 2010. The Falcons also have a 300-pounder who can do this.

Oklahoma at Kansas State (+23.5), noon ET, ABC

It is tough to wager against Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma right now. However, this Kansas State squad is underrated and the Wildcats may be able to contain the Sooners offense to an extent. Since 2017 Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite and Kansas State is 11-6 ATS after playing a game at home (defeated TCU at home last week). Kansas State will likely need to reach 20+ points to get the cover in this one, but I like their chances. I expect this game to be similar to the Oklahoma game at Kansas, only a closer final spread.

Arkansas (+32) at Alabama, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Razorbacks are not good, and everyone knows this, but they are getting 31 points in a conference game against a backup quarterback. Arkansas has covered the spread against Alabama in back-to-back seasons, even though the scores were lopsided. Since 2017 Arkansas is 7-2 ATS coming off a loss to a conference rival by 10 or more points (lost to Auburn last week by 41). Also since 2017 Alabama is 0-4 ATS when playing a team with a losing record and 6-13 ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in the previous game (held Tennessee to 13 last week). I do not believe this game will be close, but I believe Arkansas will stay within 30 points the whole time and will not make mistakes, like this fake punt, again.

Boston College (+34.5) at Clemson, 7:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network

This spread is almost insulting to the level of talent Boston College has. The Eagles are not a great team, but they are on par with teams like Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Louisville and NC State. This spread is putting them around the level of teams like Charlotte and Georgia Tech, who Clemson played previously this season. There are also an insane amount of trends in favor of BC here. Since 2017 the Eagles are 11-4 ATS as an underdog, 5-0 ATS as a road underdog, 15-4 ATS against conference opponents, 9-0 ATS in October games, 11-1 ATS in weeks 5-9 and 11-3 ATS after playing a game at home. Do you really need any more numbers here? Take the Eagles with extreme confidence.

California (+21.5) at Utah, 10 p.m. ET, FS1

Cal has lost three consecutive games after a 4-0 start. Utah has won three consecutive games since it lost at USC. I believe this spread is an overreaction to the two previous facts. The Cal defense has contained everyone it has played, and the Bears have yet to allow more than 24 points to an opponent. Oregon was only able to manage 17 points against this defense. Since 2017 Cal is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog and 10-3 ATS after playing three straight conference games. Cal is receiving more points in this game than they average giving up to opponents. I love Cal to keep this score low.

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