Top 5 NCAAF mammoth spread busters for Week 10

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October 31st, 2019

Yet another straight up winner last week with Kansas State! Unfortunately, that was our only win against the spread. However, if you are playing the moneylines on these, you are definitely making a large profit. Not to mention we are still above .500 on the season. Let us start Week 10 with a Friday night game, and then four Saturday games. Here is to hitting another straight up winner!

Navy at UConn (+27), Friday 8 pm ET, ESPN2

The Huskies are coming off their first victory of the season over an FBS opponent last week. Granted that victory was against 1-7 UMass, this may just be the confidence booster this program needed. UConn only lost to Houston by seven points the week before and they might have another close game against a better opponent in them. Since 2017, Navy is 2-4 ATS as a road favorite and UConn is 8-6 ATS in the second half of the season. I can see the Huskies keeping this one close until late and covering this massive spread.

Houston (+21) at Central Florida, Saturday noon ET, ESPN2

Clayton Tune, filling in for redshirted quarterback D'Eriq King, is coming off a 400-yard passing game against SMU. Even though the Cougars lost that game, they put up an impressive showing, only losing by three points. Since 2017, Houston is 3-0 ATS when coming off eight days rest and 3-0 ATS when coming off a loss of seven or fewer points to a conference rival. Since 2017, UCF has a stellar record ATS, but they are 0-2 ATS coming off a win of 35 or more points against a conference rival (defeated Temple by 42). Houston has yet to lose a game this season by more than 18 points and that schedule includes Oklahoma. I like the Cougars to make a game of this one.

UTEP (+23) at North Texas, Saturday 3:30 pm ET, NFL Network

This is a matchup of two bad teams. These two teams have a combined record of 4-11. It is hard to imagine this game being on the NFL Network, but I guess they want to give everyone a shot at playing on this network once in their life. On the other hand, maybe they are just going to show a bunch of Aaron Jones highlights. Since 2017, North Texas is 0-6 ATS off a loss to a conference rival (lost to Charlotte last week) and 4-12 ATS in the second half of the season. The Mean Green have only one victory by more than 20 points this season. I do not see this game getting out of hand for either team.

Cincinnati at East Carolina (+24), Saturday 7 pm ET, CBS Sports Network

The Bearcats look like a contender to win the American conference this season. Their only loss came at Ohio State this season. ECU is not a good football team, but we are not looking for an upset, just a cover. In the history of the series between these two programs (22 games), Cincy has never won by more than 16 points on the road. Since 2017, Cincinnati is 6-11 ATS coming off a game against a conference opponent and 1-5 ATS off a win by 10 or more points against a conference opponent. They defeated Tulsa by 11 points on October 19. I predict that the Pirates will stay within 20 points in this one and get the cover.

Ole Miss (+20) at Auburn, Saturday 7 pm ET, ESPN

The Rebels are an underrated team given their record is 3-5. They have close losses to Texas A&M, Cal and Memphis and they put up respectable showings against Missouri and Alabama. This game is a trap game scenario for the Tigers. It is sandwiched in between games against LSU and Georgia. Auburn has only covered this spread three times since 1995 in this series. The Rebels should be able to pass the ball in this game and keep it interesting. They may even bust out some plays like this one against the other school from Alabama.