Top 5 NCAAF mammoth spread busters for Week 11

November 7th, 2019

We didn't have straight-up winner last week, but we did have a 3-2 record. We are going to continue to roll through the final month of the season with some more spread busters. I have a good feeling about Week 11, and the underdogs are going to bite hard! All games Saturday.

Massachusetts (+34.5) at Army, noon ET, CBSSN

The Minutemen are 1-8 ATS this season. The Black Knights are 3-6 ATS this season. Something has to give. One trend that UMass has going for it is that it is 2-0 ATS as an underdog of 31 or more points since the 2017 season, while Army is 3-9 ATS as a home favorite since 2017. UMass averages 22.2 points per game and Army gives up an average of 22.6 points per game. Even if you only want take away a touchdown from those averages and give UMass 16 points in this game, Army will need to amass 51 points to cover. The Golden Knights have only reached that score once this season, and it was against an FCS opponent. This spread is just too large for two bad teams.

Vanderbilt (+26.5) at #10 Florida, noon ET, ESPN

This is a classic letdown-game scenario for Florida. The Gators are coming off four consecutive games against Auburn, LSU, South Carolina and Georgia. Vandy has not had to play a ranked team since September 21 against LSU. In this history of this series, Florida has only covered this high of a spread spread once since 2009. Vandy is 7-3 ATS since 2017 after playing two straight conference games. Florida is 4-8 ATS since 2017 after playing three straight conference games. I predict an ugly game that Florida will sneak away with late.

Maryland (+43.5) at #1 Ohio State, noon ET, FOX

This is an absolute monster spread for a conference game. It feels like a century ago, but Maryland scored 63 points and pulled out at 43-point victory over Syracuse this season. The Buckeyes are rolling, and it will likely continue through this game, but 44 points is no easy task. Since 2017 Maryland is 8-3 ATS following a loss by 21 points or more. Ohio State is 1-5 ATS since 2017 in a home game where the total is 63 points or more (currently 65 points). I do not believe Maryland has a chance to win game, but covering points should be doable.

East Carolina (+21) at #25 SMU, noon ET, ESPNU

The Pirates are coming off a near major upset against Cincinnati. After the three-point loss, ECU has now covered four of its last five games. SMU has failed to cover in three of its last four games. The Mustangs are coming off their biggest game of the season against Memphis, which handed them their first loss of the year. Since 2017 ECU is 5-1 ATS off three or more consecutive losses. Since 2017 SMU is 2-10 ATS after playing three straight conference games. I believe this will be a close game, and ECU may just be able to pull out the outright win.

Connecticut (+35) at #20 Cincinnati, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN

The Huskies are not a good football team. However, they have covered two of their last three games. The Bearcats have failed to cover their last two games. Since 2017 Cincy is 3-8 ATS after three straight conference games, 0-5 ATS off two straight wins over conference rivals and 4-10 ATS in the second half of the season. After a near defeat last week, I believe Cincy will come out a little stronger this week. However, this spread is just too large. I like UConn to keep this margin around 24 points.

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