Top 5 NCAAF mammoth spread busters for Week 14

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November 28th, 2019

Another 4-1 record and a straight up winner last week! Now it's time to finish up strong. It's Feast Week and the best weekend of family, food and football of the year. I hope you saved your appetite for one final regular season Spread Busters!

South Florida (+22.5) at Central Florida, 8 p.m. ET Friday (ESPN)

The Knights come into this game having failed to cover in seven of their past eight games. A big reason why is their lack of defense. UCF has allowed over 28 points per game in that span. South Florida does not have a great offense, but they do average 22 points per game. If they reach the 20-point mark, that would cause the UCF offense to put up over 43 points. Something that the Bulls have only allowed three times this season. Last season was the first time in their 10-game series history that UCF won by more than this spread. I predict the Bulls keep this one close and the Knights pull away late, failing to cover.

Georgia at Georgia Tech (+28), noon ET Saturday (ABC)

The Bulldogs have everything to lose in this game and the Yellow Jackets have nothing to lose. Georgia will be taking on LSU in Atlanta next weekend for a spot in the College Football Playoff, assuming they win this game. This will be Georgia Tech's last game no matter the result. Since 2017, Georgia is 2-6 ATS coming off three straight wins over conference rivals. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is 8-5 ATS since 2017 after playing a game at home. The Bulldogs have only covered this spread three times in this rivalry since 1994. I like the Yellow Jackets to play spoiler here and keep this one close until late.

Maryland (+22) at Michigan State, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (FS1)

In the five times that these two teams have met since 2014, when Maryland joined the Big Ten, the score differential has never reached 23 points. Maryland is on a bad streak of being blown out, but the Spartans lost five consecutive games before defeating Rutgers last week. Since 2017, Maryland is 8-5 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points. Meanwhile, since 2017, Michigan State is 5-9 ATS as a home favorite and 2-5 ATS off a road win. The Spartans need to win this one in order to make a bowl game and I do believe they get it, but the Terrapins will cover this one. They just need to be able to finish off plays, unlike this one below:

Vanderbilt (+21.5) at Tennessee, 4 p.m. ET Saturday (SEC Network)

The Volunteers seem to have hit their stride in this season, winning five of their last six games after starting the season at 1-4. The Commodores fell off the map, being blown out three straight games, after defeating Missouri. However, this series history has been all Vandy in recent years. Tennessee has only beaten Vanderbilt by more than 22 points twice since 2003. Vandy has actually won three consecutive games straight up in this series. I do not necessarily like Vandy to win this straight up, but the game will be very close throughout and they will easily cover.

Louisiana Monroe (+20.5) at Louisiana Lafayette, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPNU)

The Warhawks and Ragin Cajuns have a history of close games between each other. Only five times in their 26-game history has the score differential reached this spread. ULM does not struggle to score averaging over 31 points per game. If they can get anywhere near that number, it will be an almost definite cover. I predict this game to come down to the final possession, as the Warhawks need a win to get bowl eligible. Do not forget they almost beat Florida State to start the season.