Top 5 NCAAF mammoth spread busters for Week 6

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October 3rd, 2019

After a second consecutive 4-1 week, the underdogs are officially back! We have increased our overall record to 14-11 and almost hit another huge moneyline wager with North Carolina over Clemson. This week there are not many options with huge spreads, but we strongly feel there are still winners available!

Utah State (+28) at LSU, Saturday, noon ET, SEC Network

This is a classic trap game scenario for the Tigers. An early kickoff (11 a.m. local time) against a non-conference opponent the week before a crucial conference game (Florida). The Aggies have a balanced offense, averaging 206.7 rushing yards per game and 326.2 passing yards per game. Utah State is 9-3 ATS in the past three seasons in non-conference games and I expect they will catch LSU off guard in this game to keep it close.

Oklahoma at Kansas (+32), Saturday, noon ET, ABC

This Kansas team is not your typical, terrible, 50-point loss, get run over by everyone Jayhawk team of the past. Kansas has an impressive win over Boston College and a close loss with West Virginia already this season. This could also be a trap game for the Sooners, as they have their huge Red River Rivalry game next weekend with Texas.

Oklahoma has covered the spread three consecutive games and is 0-2 ATS in the past three seasons after three or more consecutive covers. I like Kansas to keep this one close enough to cover this massive spread.

Troy (+24.5) at Missouri, Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, SEC Network

After a disappointing opening-week loss to Wyoming, the Tigers have bounced back with three impressive performances. However, they are about to run into the giant slayers from Troy. The Trojans are 9-0 ATS in the past three seasons when playing a team with a winning record.

I expect this to be a high-scoring game, as both offenses average over 38 points per contest. That does not bode well for a Missouri cover, as the Tigers are 5-8 ATS over the last three seasons when the total is greater than or equal to 63 points. I predict the Trojans will turn this into a shootout, and the last team with the ball may come out on top.

Georgia at Tennessee (+25), Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

If you are looking strictly at talent in this matchup, you probably want nothing to do with the Volunteers. However, Tennessee will not put up with being the laughing stock of the SEC and will come out strong at home off a bye week. Georgia only defeated Vanderbilt by 24 points on the road, and I believe Tennessee will put up a better showing than that.

Massachusetts (+26.5) at Florida International, Saturday, 7 P.M. ET, ESPN3

These are just two bad teams playing each other. UMass finally got a victory last week, when it upset Akron. FIU's only victory came against New Hampshire, an FCS opponent.
The Minutemen are 3-0 ATS in the last three seasons as a road underdog of more than 21 points and 4-0 ATS in the last three seasons after a two-game home stand. The Panthers are 2-7 ATS over the last three seasons as a home favorite. I do not understand why this spread is so large, when both teams are so bad. I foresee a single-digit margin in this game.

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