Week 11 SEC Betting - Ole Miss at Texas A&M
Mississippi Rebels (5-4) at Texas A&M Aggies (5-4) Saturday, November 10th – Kyle Field – 1:00pm ET (CBS) Week 11 SEC Betting Line: Texas A&M -13.0 (67.0)With Cameron Buckley joining Jhamon Ausbon on the injury desk for the Texas A&M, the Aggies desperately need another wideout to step in and join Quartney Davis as a viable option for QB Kellen Mond, who is bit dinged up this week and has been limited in practice. Mond has not performed well the last two weeks in A&M losses, completing just 50% of his passes with 2 interceptions. But coach Jimbo Fisher is sticking with his sophomore quarterback despite a solid backup, Nick Starkel, waiting for his shot. It could come this week if Mond struggles early again against Ole Miss, as recall Starkel passed for 499 yards in A&M’s Belk Bowl loss last year.
Ole Miss senior QB Jordan Ta’amu leads the SEC in passing with 3,001 yards. He’s taken 21 sacks, but Texas A&M QB Mond has been sacked a league-high 30 times, as he holds the ball too long and is not decisive in his decisions while trying to make plays as a dual threat.
While Ole Miss has just one win in SEC play, the Rebels have a positive yards per play (YPPL) differential of +0.9 and the offense is explosive and pretty balanced averaging 7.0 yards per play while rushing for 197 yards per game and leading the SEC in passing at 360 yards per game. That's the third best output in the country. Texas A&M averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and is just +0.1 yards per play overall as its run defense is stout, but there is a weakness on the backend that can be exposed by the dynamic Ole Miss, home-run hitting pass attack.
Since the start of October, with some games to evaluate in September, underdogs with a positive YPPL, and better YPPL than their opponent, are 29-11 ATS. Ole Miss fits that profile nicely making them an encouraging play against this Week 11 SEC betting line, which is approaching two touchdowns.
Ole Miss QB Ta’amu leads the SEC in total offense at 374 yards per game and the Rebels have two of the league's top three receivers in catches per game in A.J. Brown and DaMarkus Lodge. Running back Scottie Phillips has 923 rushing yards and leads the SEC with 14 total touchdowns. The Rebels defense is deficient ranking last in the SEC in total defense, rush defense and pass defense. That’s a concern, but the A&M defense has really struggled to create turnovers and has just one recovered fumble this season. Special teams favor the Aggies, but but this is still too many points for a team enduring turmoil to be spotting against a Rebels opponent that can really move the ball and score.
This sets up to be an entertaining contest with more scoring, and the total has been bet up sharply to 67. The Rebels can clearly trade punches with the Aggies, so I'll take two touchdowns to the bank.
Week 11 SEC Betting Pick – Mississippi +13.0
Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.