MLB Daily Pick for Friday Baseball

Philadelphia Phillies (72-67) at New York Mets (71-68), 7:05 p.m. ET

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
Philadelphia Phillies+1.5 (-155)+135Over 8.5 (-115)
New York Mets-1.5 (+130)-150Under 8.5 (-105)

Runs should come across early and often in Friday night’s Phillies-Mets clash at Citi Field.

Zach Eflin (8-11, 4.33 ERA) will be on the hill for Philadelphia, but his leash has been short of late. He has struggled since the All-Star break, with a 1-3 record, 5.91 ERA and .280 opponent batting average in 10 appearances (six starts). Mets left fielder J.D. Davis and first baseman Pete Alonso have combined for nine home runs and 19 RBIs in their last 15 games. The Phillies’ bullpen is 22nd in ERA over the last two weeks (5.22).

Steven Matz (9-8, 4.04 ERA) also struggles to pitch deep into games and has been awful against Philadelphia this year (2-2, 9.00 ERA). New York’s bullpen has been even worse than the Phillies’ over the last two weeks, with a 6.02 ERA (29th).

MLB free play: Over

Cleveland Indians (81-60) at Minnesota Twins (87-53), 8:10 p.m. ET

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
Cleveland Indians+1.5 (-120)+155Over 10.5 (-105)
Minnesota Twins-1.5 (+100)-175Under 10.5 (-115)

Based on home/road splits, Michael Pineda (11-5, 4.11 ERA) and the Twins should prevail over Adam Plutko (6-4, 4.53 ERA) and the Indians at Target Field on Friday night.

Pineda boasts a solid 1.110 WHIP at home this year. Since the All-Star break, the Dominican native is 5-1 with a 3.23 ERA (eight starts). Pineda is backed by a Minnesota bullpen that owns a 2.66 ERA over the last 14 days, good for second in the majors during that span.

Plutko’s opponent batting average this season jumps from .218 at Progressive Field to .286 everywhere else. His WHIP also takes an alarming leap from 0.923 at home to 1.428 on the road. The Twins tagged Plutko for four runs on nine hits through six innings August 10. His bullpen has performed miserably of late, with a 5.45 ERA (25th).

MLB free play: Twins runline