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2019 PGA Valspar Championship Preview

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D.S. Williamson

March 20th, 2019

Dustin Johnson leads the 2019 PGA Valspar Championship field.

Johnson’s the only golfer on the BetAmerica board offering odds of less than +1000. Check out analysis of Johnson’s chances along with analysis and picks for underdogs up to +4000 and underdogs up to +6000.

PGA Valspar Championship Favorites:  

Dustin Johnson +500
Jon Rahm +1000
Jason Day +1100
Sergio Garcia +1550
Johnson was in the hunt at last week’s The Players Championship. He finished tied for fifth and only 3 strokes off winner Rory McIlroy. Although Johnson deserves to be favored, it’s tough to back any golfer at such low odds.

Looking elsewhere among the favorites, Sergio’s got a big shot this week to take the Valspar Championship. Garcia didn’t play badly at TPC-Sawgrass, finishing at 8-under. He was 8 strokes off McIlroy, but it was a decent effort.

If Sergio peaks this week, he could win. He finished 2 strokes off winner Paul Casey at the 2018 Valspar.

PGA Valspar Championship Pick: Sergio Garcia +1550

OUTSIDERS WITH A CHANCE

Webb Simpson +2000
Patrick Reed +2150
Paul Casey +2150
Gary Woodland +2150
Jim Furyk +3200
Henrik Stenson +3500
Lucas Glover +3900
Keegan Bradley +3900
Louis Oosthuizen +4000
Brant Snedeker +4000
 Defending Valspar Champion Paul Casey offers excellent odds at +2150. Casey shot a -10 to win this tournament in 2018. Although Casey’s played great, he’d have lost badly without the 65 he carded in round 4. Before the 65 round 4, Casey had shot a 71 round 3 and a 70 round 1. Unless he repeats a 65 round during this year’s tournament, he should finish out of the top 10.

Jim Furyk played his way into golf fans’ minds last week when finishing second behind Rory McIlroy in The Players Championship. Last year at the Valspar Championship, Furyk shot a 6-under. That was only 4 strokes off Casey.

Furyk presents a great value play at +3200. He’s the golfer to back among the mid-range choices.

PGA Valspar Championship Pick: Jim Furyk +3200

Major Odds Dogs Worth Considering

Kevin Kisner +4300
Ryan Moore +4500
Rafael Cabrera Bello +4500
Jason Kokrak +4500
Bubba Watson +4800
Tyrrell Hatton +4900
Adam Hadwin +5800
Sunjai Im +5900
Russell Knox +6000
 Jason Kokrak shot a -5 at the 2018 Valspar Championship. Because he’s had decent success at the tournament, we must consider Kokrak a live longshot. However, Kokrak might not offer the most value based on the odds.

Ryan Moore shot a -9 at The Players Championship. Moore carded 3 rounds under 70: a 67-round 1, a 69-round 3, and a 69-round 4. If he hadn’t imploded last Friday with a 74-round 2, he might have snuck into the top 10. Heck, who knows? He might have had a chance to challenge Rory for the trophy.

Moore’s terrific play at TPC-Sawgrass might be a sign that his form’s turning around. He had a terrible time at the 2018 Valspar, but if his form is indeed turning around, he’ll have a chance to win on Sunday.

PGA Valspar Championship Pick: Ryan Moore +4500

 

 

 
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