2019 WGC-Mexico Championship Futures - Thomas, Johnson, McIlroy Lead Charge

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D.S. Williamson

February 20th, 2019

Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, and Rory McIlroy offer favorites odds to win the 2019 WGC-Mexico Championship. Defending champion Phil Mickelson will be in the mix for the first World Golf Championship event of the season. Who will take the top of the leaderboard at Club de Golf Chapultepec this weekend? Let's look at a few ways to spread our money around and get the most value out of our dollar.

2019 WGC-Mexico Championship Favorites

Justin Thomas +975
Dustin Johnson +1100
Rory McIlroy +1100
BetAmerica oddsmakers prefer Justin Thomas to hoist the trophy ahead of favorite mainstays Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy. Sounds crazy, but that makes total sense.

Thomas has been fantastic this season. The 25-year-old from Goshen, Kentucky has 4 top-ten finishes and has made the cut in all 6 tournaments played. He also lost the WGC-Mexico last year in a playoff to Phil Mickelson. Thomas should shoot close to what he shot in 2018, and definitely warrants consideration, but Dustin Johnson wasn’t too far off with a -12. The second choice could definitely be right there at the end, but neither Dustin nor Justin are playing so much better than Rory that we should swallow the lower odds.

Rory McIlroy has hit the ball as well as the other two in the early stages of the PGA season. He always seems to be in the mix, like in early January when he finished fourth in the Sentry Championship. A fifth place finish in the Farmers Insurance Open followed before a fourth place finish in the Genesis Open just this past week.

Even with those narrow misses, McIlroy’s really striking the ball well. His odds are sometimes inflated due to name recognition, but I think he presents a really solid value overall here.

2019 WGC-Mexico Championship Pick: Rory McIlroy +1100

2019 WGC-Mexico Championship Outsiders

John Rahm +1500
Bryson DeChambeau +1500
Rickie Fowler +1550
Tiger Woods +1900
Brooks Koepka +1900
Xander Schauffele +2400
Phil Mickelson +2700
Hideki Matsuyama +2700
Tony Finau +2900
Marc Leishman +2900
If your eyes drifted towards Tiger Woods, then you're not alone. Tiger’s made the cut in both tournaments played this season, but he must step it up if he wishes to win the 2019 WGC-Mexico Championship. Woods is a play-against at those odds.

On the surface, Mickelson should have a big shot. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am and won this last year. That shows that on any given weekend, Lefty can rise to the occasion. However, sandwiched between the Pebble Beach victory was a missed cut in the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and a thirty-seventh in the Genesis Open. Like Tiger, Mickelson’s a play-against here.

Xander Schauffele ranks first on the earnings list due to his victory in the Sentry Championship and no missed cuts in 7 tournaments played. He shot a -7 at the 2018 WGC-Mexico Championships. That was well off Phil and Justin Thomas. Still, he could be rounding back to his best form.

After a tough 74 in round 1 at the Genesis Open, Schauffele shot 68, 67, 69. Shooting three excellent rounds to end a tournament after a tough opening round is always a good sign.

2019 WGC-Mexico Championship Pick: Xander Schauffele

2019 WGC-Mexico Championship Longshots (with a chance)

Paul Casey +3100
Jordan Spieth +3200
Bubba Watson +3300
Tommy Fleetwood +3400
Gary Woodland +3400
Webb Simpson +3500
Patrick Cantlay +3500
Sergio Garcia +4500
A couple of golfers are worth mentioning on the underdog list. The first is Tommy Fleetwood, who shot a -8 at the WGC-Mexico last year. Fleetwood took a break after the seventh place finish at the WGC-HSBC Championships in October. He didn’t play competitively again until the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. The good news for Fleetwood is that even though he struggled in NoCal, finishing forty-fifth, he improved in the Genesis Open, finishing twenty-eighth. Anymore improvement could put him right there.

Garcia presents more upside than Fleetwood, though. Sergio played his first tournament in the U.S. last weekend in the Genesis Open. He made the cut, but could finish no better than thirty-seventh.

Sergio had a terrible 75 round 1, but bounced back with sub 70 rounds 2 and 3 before returning to the bad form with a 71 round 4. Although disappointing, the WGC-Mexico might be Garcia’s real prize. He could have been trying out some shots last weekend.

Sergio shot a -12 in last year’s WGC-Mexico Championships. He’s got his eye on this weekend’s tournament. At +4500, Sergio Garcia offers overlay odds to take home the trophy on Sunday.

2019 WGC-Mexico Championship Pick: Sergio Garcia