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The best betting props for the 3M Open

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July 21st, 2020

After getting through the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club, which laid waste to some of golf’s biggest names last weekend, the PGA Tour rolls into Minnesota for the 3M Open

The winning score for last year’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities was 21-under par, so this year’s event should bring a return to low scores, which had been the norm since the PGA Tour resumed play. 

Here are the best prop bets to play from Thursday through Sunday.

Odds to miss the cut

PlayerOdds
Carlos Ortiz
+135
Henrik Norlander
+150
Erik Van Rooyen
+165
Bubba Watson
+200
Matthew Wolff
+210
Brooks Koepka
+275

As we saw last week at Muirfield, a number of the world’s best golfers didn’t fare well. If you told someone before the tournament that Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka would combine for three rounds in the 80s last weekend, no one would have believed you.

But it happened. 

And that brings us to the prop bet on which players will miss the cut this weekend. 

TPC Twin Cities won’t play nearly as difficult as Muirfield, but even so, Brooks Koepka hasn’t looked in form all year, with only one Top 10 finish. A nagging knee injury has hampered his season, and while he made the cut last week, he posted a final round score of 80. 

It’s been a real struggle for Koepka to rediscover the game that made him such a dominant force a year ago. He’s 146th on tour in strokes gained approach the green, and 90th in total strokes gained. It’s tough to go low when driving accuracy is below 54% and greens-in-regulation is below 65% -- which puts him 179th on tour in that category. 

Maybe Koepka turns his game back in the right direction this weekend, but it’s a far better bet that those struggles continue. 

Pick: Brooks Koepka (+275)

Odds to be the top European player

PlayerOdds
Tommy Fleetwood
+250
Paul Casey
+375
Henrik Norlander
+800
Sepp Straka
+900
Rafael Cabrera Bello
+1100
Alex Noren
+1200

Tommy Fleetwood makes his return to PGA Tour competition this week. The last time he teed up on tour was at THE PLAYERS Championship in March. That event was cancelled, however, as the COVID-19 pandemic hit. 

Sitting 12th in the Official World Golf Rankings, the 29-year-old Fleetwood has not been able to build much off that strong 2019 campaign, which featured a pair of second-place finishes and six Top-10 finishes. His best showing this season was third at the Honda Classic. 

Fleetwood is favored to place as the top European player at the 3M Open. There are other intriguing options, however, such as Henrik Norlander. 

It’s been an up and down season for Norlander, too. He’s already played in 20 events, dating back to September, and has missed the cut eight times. He also has three Top 10 finishes, most notably at the Memorial last week. Norlander finished tied for sixth, holding on as best as he could over the weekend.

Momentum could be on Norlander’s side. Fleetwood hasn’t played a round of tournament golf since March, so there might be a hesitation to take him as the top European player after a four-month absence. 

The numbers, however, still point to Fleetwood. Norlander isn’t among the top 50 players on tour for any strokes-gained category, while Fleetwood in a smaller sample size is 10th in strokes gained off the tee, 31st in strokes gained approach the green, and 24th in total strokes gained. Even after a lengthy layoff, he represents the best choice to finish as the top European player this week.

Pick: Tommy Fleetwood (+250)

Odds to finish in the Top 10

PlayerOdds
Dustin Johnson
+135
Tony Finau
+150
Brooks Koepka
+165
Tommy Fleetwood
+165
Paul Casey
+200

The usual suspects of Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, and Brooks Koepka are favored to finish in the Top 10 this weekend. But there are names further down the board that may be worth a look.

Doc Redman, for instance, had been knocking on the door in the three events before the Memorial. He’s a longer shot at odds of +600, so a potentially higher payout is possible if he does get into the Top 10 at TPC Twin Cities. 

Prior to the Memorial, Redman had posted three consecutive Top 25 finishes, with a tie for 11th at the Travelers Championship. On six occasions this season, he’s finished the tournament at 10-under par or lower. 

He’s a long shot worth looking at. 

Pick: Doc Redman (+600)


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