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The best betting props for the Charles Schwab Challenge

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June 10th, 2020

On Thursday, the PGA Tour’s lengthy hiatus will come to an end, when the Charles Schwab Challenge tees off at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.

The annual tournament will represent the first Tour action since The Players Championship was cancelled in mid-March because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly all of the top 20 players in the world will compete among the expanded field of 144.

Below we'll take a look at some of the best prop bets to play over the weekend, to boost your bankroll and add to the excitement of the Tour’s return.

Tournament winning margin

WinnerMargin of victory
Kevin Na, 2019
4 strokes
Justin Rose, 2018
3 strokes
Kevin Kisner, 2017
1 stroke
Jordan Spieth, 2016
3 strokes
Chris Kirk, 2015
1 stroke

In 2019, Kevin Na beat out Tony Finau by four strokes to finish first at the Charles Schwab Challenge. The year before, Justin Rose defeated Brooks Koepka by three.

Since 2015, the average margin of victory at the tournament is 2.4 strokes. From 2010-2015, only Zach Johnson won by three strokes (2010), while every other champion either won by one stroke or entered into a playoff.

Only once in the past decade has the event been decided in extra holes (2014), so it’s best to shy away from that play. Based on the averages, this tournament should be decided by two or three strokes.

PGA Tour free pick: Two strokes exactly +350  

Top European player

PlayerOdds
Rory McIlroy
+200
Jon Rahm
+330
Justin Rose
+1000
Matthew Fitzpatrick
+1100
Shane Lowry
+1200

The No. 1 golfer in the world, Rory McIlroy, played some of his best golf before the PGA Tour’s suspension. At the start of the year, he finished third at the Farmers Insurance Open, then landed three top-five finishes at the Genesis Invitational, WGC-Mexico Championship, and Arnold Palmer Invitational.

It’s difficult to anticipate how anyone will do in their first tournament back, after a nearly three-month layoff from competition, but in McIlroy’s case, we’ve also never seen him play at Colonial.  

While his game is suited for the course, No. 2-ranked Jon Rahm is the better bet.

Rahm is No. 1 in all-around ranking on Tour, and he finished fifth at this tournament in 2018 and second, by just one stroke, in 2017.

PGA Tour free pick: Jon Rahm +330

Group B winner

PlayerOdds
Brooks Koepka
+330
Dustin Johnson
+330
Xander Schauffele
+350
Patrick Reed
+350
Sungjae Im
+375

Koepka, ranked No. 3 in the world, came in second in the 2018 Charles Schwab, though his lingering knee issue from earlier in the calendar year leaves him a toss-up.

Colonial isn’t an ideal course for long hitter Dustin Johnson, and he admittedly hadn’t played much golf since the Tour went on hiatus, which showed in the TaylorMade Driving Relief skins match a month ago.

One player who should perform well at Colonial is Sungjae Im. He is 22nd on Tour in strokes gained tee to green, tied for ninth in all-around ranking, and 10th in birdie average.

He also won the Honda Classic in February and finished third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March.

PGA Tour free pick: Sungjae Im +375

3-ball betting, Round 1

PlayerOdds
Bryson DeChambeau
+150
Dustin Johnson
+160
Justin Rose
+225

It’s best to steer clear of Johnson in his first tournament back.

Rose might seem like a solid pick, because of his win at Colonial in 2018, but he is another player who could struggle this weekend. Rose ranks 188th in birdie average on Tour and is tied for 222nd in par 4 scoring. There are 12 par 4s, four par 3s, and two par 5s on Colonial’s par-70, 7,209-yard course.

Rose also missed the cut in three of the past four tournaments he played earlier this year.  

Bryson DeChambeau is tied for sixth in par 4 scoring on Tour, is second in all-around ranking, and tied for 14th in birdie average. He also finished no worse than fifth in his past three events.

PGA Tour free pick: Bryson DeChambeau +150

Top-five finish

Both Rahm and DeChambeau are solid choices for outright winner at the Charles Schwab. If you're looking for a longshot, consider Scottie Scheffler (+4000).

He probably won't win Sunday, but the Rookie of the Year contender has a great shot at a top-five finish (+800).

While there won't be any fans this weekend, Scheffler will own a bit of an advantage as a Dallas native playing close to home. He also ranks fifth on Tour in all-around ranking, 15th in scoring average, fifth in birdie average, and is tied for sixth in Par 4 scoring.

Look for Scheffler to make a statement, after his 15th-place finish at the Arnold Palmer back in March.

PGA Tour free pick: Scottie Scheffler +800


Find the full list of odds on the Charles Schwab Challenge at BetAmerica

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