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The best betting props for the WGC-St. Jude Invitational

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July 29th, 2020

With a week until the PGA Championship, many of the world’s top golfers are at TPC Southwind for a tune-up in the WGC-St. Jude Invitational.

Most of the top 50 in the world golf rankings are represented in the field of 78 at this no-cut event, with new No. 1 Jon Rahm the favorite at +1000.

The 7,244-yard course at Southwind is considered one of the toughest par-70 courses on the PGA Tour. With a rainy weekend ahead, and a layout prone to luring balls in the water, scoring could come at a premium.

Let’s look at the best prop bets to wager on the St. Jude Invitational and the players with the greatest shot to land atop the leaderboard.

Odds on tournament winning margin

Winning marginOdds
1 stroke exactly
+250
Playoff
+300
4 strokes or more
+350
2 strokes exactly
+350
3 strokes exactly
+550

Last year’s St. Jude champion Brooks Koepka (+2800) beat out Webb Simpson (+2000) by three strokes to finish in first at 16-under par. Prior to 2019, the St. Jude Classic was held at Southwind, where Dustin Johnson and Daniel Berger have both won twice in the past decade.

In 2018, Johnson defeated runner-up Andrew Putnam by six strokes, while Berger won in 2016 and 2017 by three strokes and one stroke, respectively.

Since 2012, the average winning margin at TPC Southwind is 2.6 strokes. A playoff hasn’t occurred there since 2011.

Recently, the Memorial and Rocket Mortgage were decided by three strokes, and last week’s 3M Open ended with Michael Thompson two strokes ahead of second-place finisher Adam Long.

Based on the averages, look for the winner to break free for a healthy lead by Sunday.

Take the value at three strokes exactly.

Pick: Win by three strokes exactly +550

Odds on hole in one

Hole in oneOdds
Hole in one
Yes (+200), No (-280)
2 or more holes in one
Yes +900

The chances a Tour player will make a hole in one are 3,000-1, according to the National Hole-in-One Registry, but scoring aces at Southwind isn’t unheard of.

Last year, Kevin Tway sunk one on the fourth hole in the final round of the St. Jude Invitational. Before Tway's feat, Stewart Cink aced the eighth hole in the third round in 2018.

Prior to Cink, no player had a hole in one at the St. Jude Classic since 2015, when both David Hearn and Hudson Swafford knocked one in during the same tournament.

Since the St. Jude Classic relocated to Southwind in 1989, the event has seen 24 aces by Tour players.

Bet on another ace this weekend.

Pick: Hole in one +200

Odds on Group B winner

PlayerOdds
Xander Schauffele
+330
Webb Simpson
+330
Collin Morikawa
+350
Tyrrell Hatton
+360
Viktor Hovland
+360

In Group B, all five golfers have posted a top-three finish since the Tour resumed play in mid-June, and two in Group B (Webb Simpson and Collin Morikawa) have won an event in the past month.

Any one of these players could soar at the Invitational, but keep an eye on Hatton.

Since the restart, Hatton has posted third- and fourth-place finishes at the RBC Heritage and Rocket Mortage Classic, and hasn’t finished worse than 14th in the six tournaments he entered this season.

Hatton is also second on Tour in strokes gained approaching the green, one of the key statistics in play at Southwind. The 28-year-old Englishman has an accurate driver, is first on Tour in strokes gained putting, third in scoring average, and tied for first in par 4 scoring average.

Southwind features 12 par 4s, four par 3s, and just two par 5s.

Expect Hatton to pick up where he left off at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and rise up the leaderboard this weekend.

Pick: Hatton +360

Odds on 3-ball betting, Round 1

PlayerOdds
Rory McIlroy
+110
Webb Simpson
+180
Jordan Spieth
+280

This battle should come down to Simpson or McIlroy. Both golfers finished in the top five at the St. Jude Invitational last year and shot a 69 in the opening round.

Spieth landed in 12th at this tournament in 2019, but he did his best work Saturday and Sunday. His accuracy off the tee has been a concern, and his putter won't save him out at Southwind.

Simpson and McIlroy’s games are both suited for this course, but Simpson’s putting (ranked 17th on tour) is superior, and he is a far more accurate driver.

Pick: Simpson +180

Top-five finish

As mentioned earlier, Berger is a two-time winner at Southwind since 2016, and he has been playing some of his best golf since the Tour resumed play.

Berger won the Charles Schwab Challenge, then finished third the next weekend at the RBC Heritage. He missed the cut at the Memorial, which saw only nine players finish under par.

This course should offer Berger the perfect opportunity to bounce back and secure a spot high on the leaderboard. 

Berger is tied for 33rd in driving accuracy on tour, he is 13th in strokes gained putting, and tied for eighth in par 4 scoring.

Take Berger at +500 to rebound from the Memorial with a top-five finish.

Pick: Berger +500


Find all the latest prop odds on the St. Jude Invitational at BetAmerica!

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