In my last blog I profiled the likely 2016 Kentucky Derby starters in point standings from 1 through 5. In this blog, I profile horses 6 through 10. Through these profiles I’m handicapping the Derby. From my perspective, there is plenty of information out there to get your handicapping done early. The Kentucky Derby is like no other race of the year in the sense that it’s not only the hardest race in which to handicap, but it could also be the most profitable. If you can hit the exacta, trifecta and superfecta in the Derby, your bankroll no doubt should take a huge step forward!
Let’s get to it!
6. Creator, 110 points – I’m a huge fan of this horse’s Arkansas Derby win. He was way behind the field before making a nice, long run to get into contention. Then, when he felt the whip, he found another gear. He looked like he was going best in the Rebel Stakes. So, his win in the Arkansas Derby was no surprise to me. I expect him to move forward in Kentucky. But, one of the things that I’m having trouble with is his ability to get 1 1/4 miles. Unlike Exaggerator, who was sired by Curlin, this guy is sired by Tapit. Unlike Tonalist, a Tapit horse that was a big, leggy colt, Creator appears to have a low-center of gravity. Even in the Arkansas Derby, it looked like Suddenbreakingnews was going to catch him if the race had been just a bit longer. I don’t know. I think he can get the Derby distance, but I’m not sure if he can get the distance first, which is a long way of saying that second, third or fourth might be the best that he does.
7. Lani, 100 points – Like Creator, Lani is a Tapit colt. Winning the UAE Derby after spotting the field 6 lengths is definitely impressive, but the time was horribly slow. He’s got a grinder look about him that could spell doom in the Kentucky Derby. Then again, Giacomo grinded his way to a Derby win. Giacomo was an anomaly. Afleet Alex that year was the absolute best horse. Sometimes, those things happen in the Kentucky Derby. I’ll put him in my trifecta because I’m going All with that wager for the show slot. But, there are other, better, grinders in the Kentucky Derby that I believe can finish second.
8. Mor Spirit, 84 points – This is definitely one of those horses that can finish in the exacta. I’m not sure that he can win it, I haven’t nailed down my winner yet, but Mor Spirit will definitely be in my exacta. To me, jockey Gary Stevens kept Mor Spirit much too close to a ridiculously fast pace in the Santa Anita Derby. Mor Spirit still fought to finish second. With both Danzing Candy and Outwork signed up for the Derby on May 7, horseplayers should expect a pace similar to the :45 to :46 that Danzing Candy ran in the Santa Anita Derby. Gary’s going to take Mor Spirit much further off the pace on the First Saturday in May. That’ll give this son of Eskendereya a shot to win the Roses.
9. Mohaymen, 80 points – I’m not as willing to throw out the terrible race in the Florida Derby as so many others are. One of the two things happened. Either Mohaymen just didn’t have it, as many horseplayers have asserted, or Mohaymen just isn’t as good as so many thought he was. I’m leaning towards him not being as good as so many thought he was. That doesn’t mean I’m not putting him in the exacta. I think that he’s run fast enough to warrant me including him in the exacta. But, he won’t be my pick to win the Kentucky Derby. I’m not sure if he’s ever run fast enough to actually win the race and his action tells me that he gives up a lot of energy along the backstretch. He looks like he’s moving fast, which is different from horses like Nyquist and Exaggerator who appear to be running relaxed no matter where they are in a race. I’m definitely using, but I’m not sold for the top spot.
10. Danzing Candy, 60 points – Like Outwork, this guy only knows one way to run, that’s on the lead. I’m not sure they’re going to teach him how to rate before the Kentucky Derby. More than likely, Mike Smith is going to try and steal it on the front end ala Mike’s ride aboard Bodeimeister in 2012. But there is other speed signed on for the Derby including Majesto, Outwork and Nyquist. I just don’t see it. He’ll be in the trifecta when I push the All button for the show slot, but for the superfecta, where I’ll have to be much more selective due to ticket cost, he’s a throw out.
The Kentucky Derby is less than a month away! Sharpen your skills by playing the BetAmerica Racing Contests today!