Omaha Beach winning the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) - Coady Photography

Omaha Beach winning the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) – Coady Photography

The 2019 Kentucky Derby is so deep it only makes sense to discuss the chances of the likely favorite winning in the same blog about the chances of one of the longest shots on the board.

Omaha Beach should enter the Kentucky Derby as either the first, co-first, or second choice. Omaha Beach has beaten Game Winner and Improbable in his last couple of races. He looks like the real deal.

For most horseplayers, By My Standards does not look like the real deal. The Louisiana Derby winner will enter the starting gate on May 4 a massive long shot. His odds should be in the neighborhood of 25/1 to 30/1. Check out cases for and against both the Arkansas Derby winner and the La Derby winner.

The Derby Case For & Against Omaha Beach & By My Standards

Derby Case for and against Omaha Beach

Making the Kentucky Derby case for Omaha Beach is easy. He broke his maiden by 9 lengths, and then beat the two-year-old champ in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. After beating Game Winner, he took down another top Bob Baffert three-year-old in Improbable in the Arkansas Derby.

Omaha Beach is also trained by one of the greatest horsemen to ever step onto a racetrack, Richard Mandella. Mandella is one of the most revered trainers in history, and for good reason. His horses always seem to run well no matter the level.

Finally, there’s the favorite’s cruising speed. His cruising speed is so high that appears to conserve energy while his competition tries to keep up with him. Omaha Beach has a real shot to win the Run for the Roses.

There aren’t many knocks. The main one might be strategy. Omaha Beach doesn’t need the lead. The key will be how far Mike Smith keeps him off the pace. If he keeps him too far back, he could be struggling to make up ground. Keep him to close and he might get burned out chasing Maximum Security and probably Vekoma.

There is also the chance that he bounces after two fantastic performances. Omaha Beach will have had only 3 weeks to recover while both Tacitus and Roadster will have had four weeks and Maximum Security will have had five weeks. If he isn’t fresh on the first Saturday in May, the chalk could lose.

Derby Case for and against By My Standards

Making the Kentucky Derby case for By My Standards means starting with the knocks because that’s what most are talking about. It took By My Standards four races to break his maiden. When he did break his maiden, he did so at the Fair Grounds. He won the Louisiana Derby at his home track, but many horseplayers feel the La Derby was light on talent. His sire is Goldencents. Although a very good racehorse, Goldencents wanted no part of 1 ¼ miles. Trainer Bret Calhoun is a great horseman, but he’s not known for saddling Triple Crown race contenders.

Those are some major knocks against By My Standards, but there are also some positives. He showed a great turn of foot to beat Spinoff in the Louisiana Derby. Although it was at his home track, the La Derby was his first race against winners. As far as it taking him four races to break his maiden, who knows why that  happened?

One thing about it, though, is like Spinoff, his Brisnet rating have gotten better with each race. It could simply be the case of this guy finally figuring out what his connections expect of him. That’s another thing. Because he broke his maiden two races ago, By My Standards could improve in the Kentucky Derby.

If he’s figured things out, By My Standards could pull a Mine That Bird on May 4. This is a wide-open Derby, which means horses like By My Standards could shock the world while horses like Omaha Beach could disappoint.