by Fairway Jay
A month ago near the trade deadline, I wrote about pitchers to pound in MLB betting. These are pitchers that are likely to get whacked and allow plenty of baserunners, hits and runs. Chicago White Sox starter James Shields is next in line as he toes the runner against the Yankees in New York on Tuesday, Aug. 28.
Yesterday we hit a run line winner as the Astros belted the A’s 11-4. Many bettors will line up with a similar run line wager on the Yankees Tuesday with an attractive MLB betting run line, electing to risk less with the anticipation of New York beating the White Sox by at least 2 runs. Since I anticipate many runs scored for the Bronx Bombers, that play is also worthy of a wager. But we’ll also play over the total and chip-in a team total on the Yankees over as New York is ready to erupt for 7 or more runs.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX AT NEW YORK YANKEES – Tuesday, August 28th
Shields (CHI) +215 / +1.5 (+110) / O 10 (-115)
Lynn (NYY) -240 / -1.5 (-130) / U 10 (-105)
Lance Lynn has pitched okay for the Yankees since arriving via trade from the Twins. But the White Sox have won four in a row and are swinging the bats well right now scoring 6, 7, 6 and 6 runs in those four road wins. That includes a 6-2 win last night at New York as a +200 underdog while hitting starter Masahiro Tanaka for 4 runs and 10 hits over 7 innings.
In five starts for NY, Lynn is 1-1 and has pitched 5.1 innings or less in four of those outings. He allowed just one run in his first three starts covering 16.2 innings and shut out these White Sox over 7.1 innings on Aug. 6. But his last two starts were poor allowing 5 runs in each contest with 15 hits over 9.1 innings. He’s a risk to lay such a huge price, but that’s why bettors will reduce risk and play the run line.
Considering that we expect New York to hit some bombs and smack James Shields, we believe New York will bounce back big Tuesday. The Yankees had their 4-game win streak snapped by Chicago Monday, but New York had scored 5, 5, 10 and 7 runs during that winning streak. Shield is tied for the most losses (15) in the majors this season. Along with a 4.59 ERA and average 1.29 WHIP, he’s allowed 26 home runs; fourth most in the American League. That’s bad news at this ballpark and against a Yankees team that leads the majors in home runs (212) and has scored the 2ndmost runs in baseball (681 / 5.2 per game).
Shields’ under the hood numbers tell the true story with a xERA of more than 5.50. His 26% hit rate a month ago has proven to be unsustainable. He is also beginning to wear down with 170 innings pitched this season, the most since 2015 when his deterioration started. Shields was whacked for 7 runs and 10 hits including 3 HRs at Detroit last time out. He’s been able to pitch at least 6 innings in each of his last five starts, but has allowed at least 3 runs in each outing. Over his last three road starts, Shields has allowed 7, 4 and 6 runs. He also allowed 8 runs to the Astros in Houston on July 7. Expect the Yankees to smack Shields good and score plenty of runs.
MLB Betting Free Pick – NYY across the board