MLB Daily Pick for Monday Baseball

Baltimore Orioles (14-26) at New York Yankees (24-16), 6:35 p.m. ET

MLB Free Play: Over

David Hess (1-4, 5.50 ERA) (BAL) +200 / +1.5 runs (-105) / Over 8.5 runs (-115)
Jonathan Loaisiga (1-1, 4.50 ERA) (NYY) -225 / -1.5 runs (-115) / Under 8.5 runs (-105)

Analysis

It could be a high-scoring Monday night affair at Yankee Stadium as two struggling starting pitchers take the hill in Baltimore’s David Hess and New York’s Jonathan Loaisiga.

Hess was tagged for three home runs in his last appearance against the Yankees (April 7). Since that effort, he’s allowed seven additional round-trippers in five starts (0-3). The Orioles bullpen owns the worst ERA in the American League (5.86), so actual relief for Hess could be hard to come by.

Loaisiga has made four starts this season, pitching four innings or fewer each time. He’s allowed seven earned runs on 13 hits and eight walks. Orioles shortstop Stevie Wilkerson, who owns a .876 OPS in May, and left fielder Trey Mancini should pounce on Loaisiga and the Bombers’ 17th-ranked bullpen (4.26). 

Milwaukee Brewers (24-18) at Philadelphia Phillies (23-16), 7:05 p.m. ET, ESPN

MLB Free Play: Phillies moneyline

Freddy Peralta (2-1, 6.75 ERA) (MIL) +135 / +1.5 runs (-160) / Over 8 runs (-115)
Aaron Nola (3-0, 4.57 ERA) (PHI) -150 / -1.5 runs (+135) / Under 8 runs (-105)

Analysis

The Phillies host the Brewers at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night in the opener of a four-game series. The starting pitching matchup gives Philadelphia the edge.

Aaron Nola goes for the Phillies, and he has allowed just one earned run in each of his last three contests (18 1/3 innings). He served up seven home runs in his first five starts of 2019 but has gotten that figure under control of late, surrendering just one round-tripper in his last three outings combined. Milwaukee’s offense is a mediocre 23rd in runs per game on the road this year at 4.06.

The struggling Freddy Peralta makes his first start since being “opened” for by Adrian Houser (0-1, 6.10 ERA). Peralta pitched five scoreless frames behind Houser against the Nationals on Tuesday, but Washington’s lineup has been plagued by injuries. Peralta’s ERA was 8.31 before that effort. Houser, who could be tasked with long relief in this one, hasn’t allowed a run in his last three appearances, though none lasted more than two innings.

Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera has seven hits and six RBI in his last five contests; look for him to put his team over the top.


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