MLB Daily Pick for Tuesday Baseball

Toronto Blue Jays (23-42) at Baltimore Orioles (20-45), 7:05 p.m. ET

Trent Thornton (1-4, 4.73 ERA) (TOR) -115 / +1.5 runs (-225) / Over 8.5 runs (-115)
John Means (5-4, 2.67 ERA) (BAL) +105 / -1.5 runs (+185) / Under 8.5 runs (-105)

MLB free play: Orioles moneyline

The Blue Jays and Orioles are each 5-15 their last 20 games, tied for the worst mark in the majors. But bettors should confidently back Baltimore and their best starter, John Means, as he matches up with the toiling Trent Thornton.

Thornton has struggled in last six starts for Toronto, pitching to a 5.52 ERA and 1.568 WHIP. Leadoff hitters are batting .364 with a 1.099 OPS against him this season. Orioles leadoff man and second baseman, Hanser Alberto, has seen the ball well in the last seven days and amassed 13 hits in his last 32 at-bats, with just one strikeout.

Means has been effective at Camden Yards this year, going 3-1 with a 1.53 ERA in seven appearances (five starts). His batting average against is .173.

Arizona Diamondbacks (35-32) at Philadelphia Phillies (37-29), 7:05 p.m. ET

Jon Duplantier (1-0, 3.27 ERA) (ARZ) +120 / +1.5 runs (-170) / Over 9.5 runs (EVEN)
Jake Arrieta (5-5, 4.29 ERA) (PHI) -130 / -1.5 runs (+140) / Under 9.5 runs (-120)

MLB free play: Diamondbacks moneyline

The Diamondbacks and Phillies had an unscheduled Home Run Derby on Monday night, when they combined for 13 homers in a 13-8 Arizona victory at Citizens Bank Park. An Over could be in the cards once again, but there’s enough value in the Diamondbacks’ moneyline to make it the top play here.

Jake Arrieta will pitch at home for the first time since May 15. He struggled in his most recent pair of road outings, where he allowed 10 earned runs over 9 2/3 innings. Arrieta has already allowed 14 home runs this season, a statistic that has become even scarier for Philadelphia in the last 24 hours. The Diamondbacks are third in runs per game on the road this year at 5.97 and sixth in home runs at 103. Among Arizona’s hottest hitters is first baseman and recent call-up Kevin Cron (Twins first baseman C.J. Cron’s younger brother), who has a 1.122 OPS in June.

Jon Duplantier has pitched decently since he filled the injured Luke Weaver’s rotation spot (4.50 ERA, 10 innings) but hasn’t gone deep into games. Fortunately for the Diamondbacks, their bullpen is more than capable of picking up the slack. Arizona’s relievers have a 3.54 ERA in the last 30 days, the third-best mark in baseball.