MLB Daily Pick for Wednesday Baseball

Milwaukee Brewers (25-19) at Philadelphia Phillies (24-17), 7:05 p.m. ET

MLB Free Play: Under

Gio Gonzalez (1-0, 1.69 ERA) (MIL) -105 / +1.5 runs (-200) / Over 9 runs (-110)
Jake Arrieta (4-3, 3.78 ERA) (PHI) -105 / -1.5 runs (+165) / Under 9 runs (-110)

MLB Analysis

Expect solid performances at Citizens Bank Park from two veteran starting pitchers, as Gio Gonzalez and the Brewers battle Jake Arrieta and the Phillies.

Gonzalez has demonstrated he was well worth a major league contract in his first three starts for Milwaukee. He’s allowed just three earned runs in 16 innings and has a 0.938 WHIP. Several Phillies have a wealth of experience against Gonzalez from his days with the Nationals, but most of it is negative. Shortstop Jean Segura is 5-for-18, but third baseman Maikel Franco and first baseman Rhys Hoskins are a combined 1-for-33.

Arrieta has been effective in his last eight starts against Milwaukee, allowing an opponent batting average of .213. Brewers outfielder and early season MVP candidate Christian Yelich has just three hits in 13 at-bats against Arrieta.

St. Louis Cardinals (23-19) at Atlanta Braves (21-21), 7:20 p.m. ET, ESPN

MLB Free Play: Braves runline

Michael Wacha (3-0, 5.35 ERA) (STL) +135 / +1.5 runs (-155) / Over 9.5 runs (EVEN)
Mike Soroka (3-1, 1.21 ERA) (ATL) -150 / -1.5 runs (+130) / Under 9.5 runs (-120)

MLB Analysis

Michael Wacha’s 3-0 record belies how inefficient he’s been on the mound for the Cardinals this year. St. Louis’ bats will have a hard time producing enough run support to get him another win against Mike Soroka and the Braves at SunTrust Park.

Wacha owns a ghastly 1.635 WHIP and a paltry 1.59 strikeout/walk ratio through seven outings this season. Opponents are batting .271 against him. By contrast, Soroka’s WHIP is 1.045, and his SO/W ratio is 2.82. His batting average against is .183.  

Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Ender Inciarte have great lifetime numbers against Wacha, going 9-for-16 combined (.563). Look for them to lead the way on offense.