ALDS Game 3 previews: Astros at Rays, Yankees at Twins

Robert Criscola

October 7th, 2019

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
Houston Astros
-1.5 (+115)
Over 7.5 (-115)
Tampa Bay Rays
+1.5 (-135)
Under 7.5 (-105)
Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA) and the Astros should put the finishing touches on an American League Division Series sweep against Charlie Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) and the Rays at Tropicana Field on Monday afternoon.

Greinke has pitched better on the road than he has at home in 2019, with 10-4 record, .264 ERA and .211 opponent batting average. He's done well in the past against several key batters in Tampa's lineup, including outfielders Austin Meadows (1-for-9), Avisail Garcia (1-for-6) and Tommy Pham (2-for-12).
Morton had a 3-0 record and 2.73 ERA in September and carried that momentum into the postseason. He tossed five innings and only allowed an unearned run against the A's in the winner-take-all Wild Card Game on Wednesday. However, he was 1-1, with an 8.00 ERA and .303 opponent batting average, in two starts against Houston this season. Third baseman Alex Bregman has already reached base five times in this series, so look for him to drive the offense.

MLB free play: Astros runline

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins, 8:40 p.m. ET, FS1

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
New York Yankees
-1.5 (+100)
Over 9 (-120)
Minnesota Twins
+1.5 (-120)
Under 9 (+100)
Luis Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) has fared poorly in previous playoff appearances for the Yankees and Jake Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51 ERA) will make his postseason debut for the Twins with mediocre splits in this situation. The Over appears to be a good bet here, but much like managers in the playoffs, bettors may have to get a little creative.

Severino is 1-2 with a 6.26 ERA in six postseason outings, including a disastrous 2017 Wild Card appearance against Minnesota, in which he allowed three runs and recorded just one out. Odorizzi had a 4.01 ERA in 22 starts in prime time and was 1-1 with an 8.00 ERA in two starts against New York in 2019.
Expect both Aaron Boone and Rocco Baldelli, especially in an elimination-game scenario, to pull out all the stops with their well-rested bullpens and try to prevent these high-octane offenses from piling on runs late.

MLB free play: Over five runs first five innings (-110)