Jacob deGrom moves into top 3 in NL Cy Young odds

Profile Picture: Ryan Murphy

September 4th, 2019

Jacob deGrom's Cy Young campaign is picking up steam. The New York Mets ace has seen his odds to win the award shorten significantly, from +800 on August 7 to +200 on September 3. DeGrom went 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA during that span, and surrendered two runs or fewer in four consecutive starts.

The 31-year-old hurler has now moved into the top three on the odds board, behind only Washington Nationals star Max Scherzer and Los Angeles Dodgers hurler Hyun-Jin Ryu.

2019 National League Cy Young odds

PlayerNL Cy Young Odds
Max Scherzer
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Jacob deGrom
Stephen Strasburg
Clayton Kershaw

DeGrom and Scherzer looked flat Tuesday night

On Tuesday night DeGrom had a chance to surge past Scherzer, as both pitchers took to the mound at Nationals Park, but the two All-Stars were shelled early and often. DeGrom gave up four earned runs, including a two-run blast to right by Juan Soto in the eighth inning. Scherzer didn't fare much better. He surrendered four earned runs and a walk over six innings. It was far from the pitcher's duel many anticipated, as both aces continually found themselves working their way out of jams.
DeGrom would probably like to forget Tuesday's lackluster outing, but he has had a superb season otherwise. He leads the National League in strikeouts and ranks fourth in ERA. He'll likely never win the Pitching Triple Crown if he stays in a Mets jersey, but he proved last season that wins are a vastly overrated metric when he received all but one first-place vote for the 2018 Cy Young Award despite his total of 10 victories. His eight wins this season are something of a minor miracle, considering he receives just 3.67 runs of support per game.

Scherzer lags behind deGrom in innings pitched

Scherzer leads deGrom in WAR for pitchers, WHIP, FIP and strikeouts per nine innings, but the Mets ace has a clear advantage over Ol' Blue Eye in innings pitched. Scherzer has only logged 148 2/3 innings this season because of lingering back issues that landed him on the IL twice.  That's notable, because only one starting pitcher has won the Cy Young since 1994 after pitching fewer than 198 innings.

Scherzer's innings count might not be a problem if the season ended today, but it's questionable how deep he'll go in his remaining starts. The 35-year-old has logged five innings or fewer in three of his last four assignments and is being monitored closely by the team's medical staff to prevent a costly injury relapse. Expect him to be brought along slowly as the Nationals gun for a playoff spot.

Ryu serious?

Ryu has the second shortest odds to win his first Cy Young, but he has been trending in the wrong direction for the past month. The South Korean star has lost each of his last three starts and gave up seven earned runs in consecutive outings against the New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks. Ryu was phenomenal during the first half of the season, but he is fading badly as baseball's stretch run begins.

Who is de choice?

Scherzer was the National League's best pitcher before the All-Star break, but deGrom has been the best since. He has posted a minuscule 1.91 ERA since the Midsummer Classic and has struck out 10 batters or more four times since July.

His recent success will weigh heavily on the minds of voters when the times comes to cast their Cy Young ballot. Toss a little change on him now at +200 and reap the rewards in November.

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