Weekend MLB preview: Rockies at Mets

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

June 7th, 2019

The Colorado Rockies (32-29) and New York Mets (30-32) meet at Citi Field this weekend for a three-game series. Each team is looking to make up precious ground in their divisions as the season creeps up to the halfway point. Here's what bettors should be watching for throughout.

Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET

Antonio Senzatela (4-4, 5.33 ERA) (COL) +180 / +1.5 runs (-130) / Over 7.5 runs (-115) Jacob deGrom (3-5, 3.49 ERA) (NYM) -200 / -1.5 runs (+110) / Under 7.5 runs (-105)

MLB Free Play: Under four runs first five innings (+105)

After a subpar April, Jacob deGrom has hit his best stride. He should dominate the Rockies on Friday night, but his opposite number, Antonio Senzatela, should not be underestimated.

Since May 1 deGrom had one poor outing in Miami surrounded by six strong starts. Excluding that six-run outlier May 17, deGrom has pitched to a 1.63 ERA in 38 2/3 innings. Colorado's star third baseman, Nolan Arenado, is just 2-for-17 lifetime against New York's ace.

Senzatela's elevated 3.8 walks per nine innings has gotten him into trouble this year, but the Mets were 25th in walks in the month of May (79) and have drawn just 12 in their first five games in June. There's value in the first five innings Under here, so bettors should head that way rather than worry about the Mets' bullpen (8.58 ERA last 14 days, last in the majors) in the later stages of this one.

Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET

Jon Gray (5-4, 4.11 ERA) exits a brilliant start for Colorado, when he pitched six scoreless innings, while Steven Matz (4-4, 3.97 ERA) is fresh off a five-run, eight-hit performance. Despite the recent performances bettors should be all over the Mets in this one.

Gray did his work against the feeble Blue Jays lineup (.220 average, last in baseball) June 1. Prior to that effort, he pitched to a 5.65 ERA in May. In nine previous innings against New York, Gray owns a 10.00 ERA. The Mets already have 11 home runs in June, second only to Seattle. Amed Rosario, Todd Frazier and Dominic Smith have each gone deep twice.

Matz struggled in Arizona when last seen, but he's 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts at Citi Field this season (24 innings). The Rockies' lineup is hitting just .229 in road games this season, the third-worst mark in the majors.

Sunday, 1:10 p.m. ET

A Rockies moneyline and Under parlay could be the play of the day in the series finale.

Jeff Hoffman (1-2, 7.29 ERA) starts for Colorado, and he was tagged for five runs by the Cubs in his lone road start this year. He sports a 6.06 career ERA but seldom gets to play in a pitcher friendly park like Citi Field. Hoffman's bullpen has produced a 3.97 ERA in the last 14 days, the sixth-best mark in baseball.

Noah Syndergaard (3-4, 4.83 ERA) has had his struggles with Colorado's lineup. Daniel Murphy, Ian Desmond and David Dahl are a combined 13-for-37 (.351) against the starter. The Mets' relievers will likely add gasoline to the fire.