MLB Daily Pick for Monday Baseball

Atlanta Braves (89-55) at Philadelphia Phillies (74-68), 7:05 p.m. ET

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
Atlanta Braves+1.5 (-180)+115Over 8.5 (-115)
Philadelphia Phillies-1.5 (+150)-130Under 8.5 (-105)

Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz (5-5, 5.28 ERA) appears to have righted the ship, but his stats bear closer examination. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola (12-4, 3.63 ERA) should build on a solid second half for the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night.

Foltynewicz owns a 3.58 ERA over his last six starts, but his last two outings were against the punchless Blue Jays. His WHIP in that six-game span is still an inflated 1.408. Philadelphia catcher J.T. Realmuto (.333, three home runs, eight RBIs) and third baseman Maikel Franco (.364, one home run, four RBIs) have been swinging hot bats in the last seven days.

Nola will attempt to shake off a lousy start in Cincinnati (four innings, five runs on five hits and three walks), and there’s no reason he can’t based on the 2.52 ERA he posted in consecutive months leading into September. The Louisiana native is 3-0 in four starts against Atlanta this year, with a 3.60 ERA and .211 opponent batting average.

MLB free play: Phillies moneyline

New York Yankees (94-50) at Boston Red Sox (76-67), 7:10 p.m. ET, MLBN

TeamRun LineMoneylineTotal
New York Yankees-1.5 (+135)-115Over 9.5 (-110)
Boston Red Sox+1.5 (-160)+100Under 9.5 (-110)

Two streaking southpaws go at it Monday night, as the Yankees’ James Paxton (12-6, 4.16 ERA) will battle Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez (17-5, 3.81 ERA) at Fenway Park.

Paxton has won seven straight starts for the Bombers, with a 2.98 ERA in that stretch. However, “Big Maple” has struggled on the road this season, with a 4.80 ERA in 11 outings. Boston sluggers Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are a combined 13-for-36 (.361) all-time against Paxton, with five home runs.

Rodriguez has won four straight starts and is 8-1 since the All-Star break, with a 2.57 ERA. He has limited two of the biggest bats in the Yankees’ order, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, to five hits (only one home run) in 30 prior at-bats combined.

MLB free play: Red Sox moneyline