NASCAR drivers head to ISM Raceway in Phoenix, Arizona for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 this Sunday, March 10.

This is the first time this NASCAR Season both favorites to win the Monster Energy Cup offer betting odds lower than +500. Kevin Harvick is at +275 on BetAmerica while Kyle Busch offers +325 on the site. Are either the choice among the favorites to win on Sunday? Check out analysis and free picks for the TicketGuardian 500! 

NASCAR at Phoenix Preview: Are Underlay Odds on Harvick and Kyle Worth It? 

2019 Ticketguardian 500 Favorites

Kevin Harvick +275
Kyle Busch +325
Brad Keselowski +750
Joey Logano +900
Chase Elliott +1100
Martin Truex Jr. +1100

 It’s always difficult to back a driver to win any NASCAR race at less than +1000 odds, but Kevin Harvick at ISM Raceway in the TicketGuardian 500 might be the driver to back. He’s dominated this race, winning 4 of the last 5. Harvick took the checkered flag in 2014, 2015, 2016, and last year in 2018.

What’s crazy is that when he won it from 2014-2016, he drove a Chevrolet for Stewart-Haas Racing. When he won it last year, he drove a Ford for Stewart-Haas. That tells us that Harvick and his crew have got it down at ISM.

Although Harvick has dominated, it’s just too hard to back him at the odds. Chase Elliott finished third in last year’s TicketGuardian 500. He and his crew are in good form after finishing ninth at Las Vegas last Sunday. It makes sense to take a shot on Elliott at +1100.

2019 Ticketguardian 500 Pick: Chase Elliott

Outsiders With A Shot To Steal The Checkered Flag

Denny Hamlin +1600
Kyle Larson +1800
Aric Almirola +2200
Clint Bowyer +2500
Kurt Busch +2500
Erik Jones +2800
Ryan Blaney +2800
Jimmie Johnson +4000

Denny Hamlin finished fourth in the 2018 TicketGuardian 500. He’s continued driving well after winning the Daytona 500 a few weeks ago with an eleventh at Atlanta and a tenth at Las Vegas.

Hamlin’s a decent pick, but Kyle’s older brother Kurt gets the call here. Kurt Busch and his crew have put together back-to-back top 5 finishes at both Atlanta and Las Vegas. He’s been knocking on the door to a win while he also finished tenth in the 2018 TicketGuardian. There’s value on Kurt Busch at +2500.

2019 Ticketguardian 500 Pick: Kurt Busch

Longshots Worthy A Chip Shot

Austin Dillon +5000
Alex Bowman +5000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +5000
Daniel Suarez +6600

Alex Bowman offers decent odds, but he finished thirteenth at last year’s TicketGuardian 500 and hasn’t broken into the top-10 in any of the three races this year. Suarez has had trouble adjusting to his new team at Joe Gibbs Racing. He’s a throw out. Dillon’s another consideration I’m dismissing because he and his crew haven’t put together a decent race yet.

Stenhouse Jr. had a bad race last year, but in 2017 he finished fourth. The reason to really like Stenhouse Jr. this year is because he finished sixth at Las Vegas last week. There’s a good chance he finishes beyond expectations in the 2019 TicketGuardian 500. Who knows? He could be the driver that breaks Kevin Harvick’s stranglehold on the race.

2019 Ticketguardian 500 Free Pick: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

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