NASCAR value picks for the Pennzoil 400
NASCAR rolls into Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday for the Pennzoil 400. Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are co-favored at +450, but we’ll be looking elsewhere for value selections to win this week.
Brad Keselowski (+600)
Keselowski was an uninspiring 36th in the Daytona 500, after he was swallowed up in the big wreck that drew a red flag on Lap 184, but he was just a victim of bad luck.
“I felt like we were right there. We led a lot of laps,” Keselowski said. “We were certainly in position at the end. … You know something’s going to happen. You know there’s going to be a big (crash). You just hope that you can get through it.”
Based on recent driver data, Keselowski has a very good chance to make it to victory lane in Las Vegas. Since September of 2018, no driver has more victories (four) over 1 1/2-mile speedways than the driver of Team Penske’s No. 2 Ford. In his last three trips to Vegas, Keselowski owns a win, a second, and a third. His three wins over this course (13 starts) are second only to Jimmie Johnson.
Joey Logano (+700)
Logano, Keselowski’s Penske teammate, appears overlooked in the betting. No active driver has a better average finish at Las Vegas than the 2018 NASCAR champ (8.54), and he’s finished in the top 10 eight straight times over this course.
Logano’s 432 laps led in that span are second only to Harvick (534). He also has two stage victories to his credit. The 1 1/2-mile ovals have been treating Logano well. He has cracked the top 10 in six of his last seven starts on 1 1/2-mile tracks. His DNF at Daytona should be ignored. Vegas is a far different course that is unlikely to produce big wrecks.
Kyle Larson (+1000)
Larson will look to build on a 10th-place finish in the Daytona 500 in a far different environment. He has never won in eight starts at Las Vegas but has run second twice in his last five efforts and has garnered two additional top 10 finishes in that span. Larson’s average finish at Las Vegas (11) ranks fourth among active drivers, behind only Logano, Ryan Blaney (9.86), and Martin Truex Jr. (10.88).