Baylor managed to stay unbeaten during Week 11, but it wasn’t pretty. The Bears needed three overtimes and a clutch fourth-down interception in the end zone to outlast TCU 29-23. Baylor’s win, combined with Alabama’s upset loss to LSU, will keep Matt Rhule’s squad in the College Football Playoff conversation for at least another week.
Week 12 is just days away and we’re expecting plenty of tight games and close calls as the 2019 season amps up. Our latest NCAAF Betting Guide has you covered with hard-hitting insight and analysis on some of this week’s most eagerly anticipated games as well as the latest trends and storylines from across the U.S.
|Michigan State Spartans||+13.5 (-110)||+415||O 44 (-110)|
|Michigan Wolverines||-13.5 (-110)||-580||U 44 (-110)|
*All odds are subject to change.
Michigan State heads to Ann Arbor this Saturday to take on in-state rival Michigan for an early kickoff. A season’s worth of disappointment can be rectified for the Spartans if they can pull off an upset as 13.5 point underdogs, but it will certainly take a monumental effort. Michigan State is 4-5 overall and just 2-7 against the spread. A normally reliable program has fallen on tough times as they’ve really struggled to score points in multiple losses.
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 10, 2019
Prior to ridiculously blowing their game against Illinois last week in which they did muster 34 points, Michigan State averaged just six points per game in their prior four losses. QB Brian Lewerke is a veteran and doesn’t have awful statistics, but watching him play it is clear he doesn’t have the ability to really threaten elite defenses. In this matchup last year he had a nightmare day, completing just 5-25 passes for 66 yards. Michigan’s defense should pose similar troubles for Lewerke in this year’s rendition, with WR Darrell Stewart Jr. being the only real threat that Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown will have to keep his eye on.
For Michigan, a disappointing and crushing defeat to Wisconsin set the tone for a season that could have been, but they still have plenty to play for. A Big Ten championships seems out of the cards but this game means plenty to many of these players on the roster, so motivation likely won’t be an issue for a team that takes great pride in defense. Michigan is seventh in yards per game given up and eleventh in points per game given up, and those standings will likely improve after a matchup against the mediocre Michigan State offense.
Michigan will almost certainly win Saturday’s rivalry, but this is Michigan State’s Super Bowl and they will likely try to play possession football to give the Spartans a chance in the fourth quarter. Michigan is undoubtedly the better team, but rivalries and emotions can make things interesting. Whether that means 13.5 points or less worth of interesting will be settled on the field this Saturday.
|Georgia Bulldogs||-2.5 (-114)||-140||O 40.5 (-111)|
|Auburn Tigers||+2.5 (-106)||+115||U 40.5 (-109)|
The South’s oldest rivalry resumes this Saturday as Georgia travels to Auburn in a fascinating matchup between two teams with lots of NFL talent on their respective rosters, and in Georgia’s case, a tremendous amount at stake. Georgia comes into the game as a 2.5 point road favorite, and will have to do better than two years ago when they also came into the game with national aspirations and left as 40-17 losers.
Georgia’s season has gone about as many expected, minus the major disappointment at home against South Carolina when they suffered their lone defeat of the season. They are 8-1 straight up and 5-4 against the spread. Georgia has outstanding defensive talent and is coached by a defensive mastermind, so it should come as no surprise they are second in the country in points per game allowed at just 10.1. They have three shutouts on their resume, and will undoubtedly give the Auburn offense and freshman QB Bo Nix plenty of trouble. Georgia is fourth in the country on defense in rushing yards given up per game, and against an Auburn team that relies heavily on the run and averages five yards per rush, Georgia’s rush defense vs. Auburn’s rush offense will likely decide the outcome.
Kirby Smart says Bo Nix “will be a really talented player in this league for a long time.” He referenced his play in Auburn’s win over Oregon.
— Brandon Sudge (@brandonsudge) November 11, 2019
For Auburn, a tough schedule has resulted in two “good” losses but still a strong resume overall. They are 7-2 straight up with those only setbacks being road losses at Florida and LSU. Auburn is also 7-2 against the spread. Senior defensive lineman Derrick Brown is a star and leads the way, and there is no doubt that Auburn is battle-tested at this point in the season.
Georgia experienced some potentially key injuries in last week’s game against Missouri, but early reports are that WR Lawrence Cager and C Trey Hill will be fine to play this week. As their status is confirmed, don’t be shocked if this line drifts higher with Georgia holding the advantage in almost all statistical categories. Auburn has plenty of fight, but Georgia is playing for higher stakes in what should make for another dramatic rendition of this classic rivalry.
|Oklahoma Sooners||-10.5 (-108)||-380||O 68 (-109)|
|Baylor Bears||+10.5 (-112)||+290||U 68 (-111)|
Oklahoma already suffered one potentially devastating loss with a defeat at the hands of Kansas State in Week 9. They very nearly suffered a second and certainly knockout-worthy one against Iowa State in Week 11. A failed two-point conversion attempt sealed the 42-41 victory for Oklahoma, but in truth, even in victory it may have been enough to keep them from making the Playoff anyway.
What the victory against Iowa State showed for Oklahoma is that they are very much lacking on the defensive side of the ball against a well-coached team with a well-executed game plan. After racking up points in the first half and getting a big lead, Oklahoma limped home and was outscored 20-0 in the fourth quarter at home by the underdog Cyclones. The defense looked tired, starting players were going down with cramps, and while it’s hard to question Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell’s decision to try and win the game with one two-point conversion, the reality is that in the second half Iowa State was clearly the superior team.
Heading into Week 12’s matchup against Baylor, the memory of Saturday night’s game in Norman is inescapable. Baylor is 9-0 straight up and 5-4 against the spread, and is a program restored under Matt Rhule. They have an agile and cagey QB in Charlie Brewer completing 67% of his passes, and while a national championship is unlikely given the schedule, Baylor has shown nothing but grit to get where they are at this point in the season.
This TD run from Baylor QB Charlie Brewer had some serious cajones. pic.twitter.com/gtlYhoyLPk
— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) November 9, 2019
For Oklahoma, offense has led the way to their success of 2019. They are 8-1 straight up and 4-5 against the spread and find themselves in playoff mode with every game they play. Oklahoma has an explosive offense (No. 2 in the country) with QB Jalen Hurts and WR CeeDee Lamb leading the way. While it might not get as much attention as other games across the country, this game is likely going to be one of the most interesting matchups of the week. Oklahoma’s offense is on a very short list of those that a gambler should want to wager on in order to cover a double-digit spread. And yet, their defense is on a long list of defenses that can’t be trusted to protect a double-digit lead. Which Oklahoma defense shows up on Saturday will most likely determine the outcome of this fantastic matchup.
Here are the betting trends you need to know for Week 12:
- Home teams have won 66% of all games SU in 2019
- Home favorites have won a staggering 83% of all games SU in 2019
- Teams ranked in the AP Top 25 went 10-2 SU against unranked opponents in Week 11
- 52% of all games have gone UNDER the projected total in 2019
- Underdogs were 30-17-1 ATS in Week 11 and are 319-324-11 overall in 2019
We’ve narrowed down the remaining Week 12 games you can’t afford to miss.
|#13 Wisconsin vs. Nebraska||Sat, November 16||NEB +14.5||51.0|
|Kansas vs. #23 Oklahoma State||Sat, November 16||OKST -18||65.5|
|#10 Florida vs. Missouri||Sat, November 16||MIZZ +7||50.5|
|#3 Alabama vs. Mississippi State||Sat, November 16||MSST +21||63.0|
|Indiana vs. #4 Penn State||Sat, November 16||PSU -14.5||53.5|
|#24 Navy vs. #15 Notre Dame||Sat, November 16||ND -9.5||54.0|
|#21 Memphis vs. Houston||Sat, November 16||HOU +10||71.5|
|West Virginia vs. #16 Kansas State||Sat, November 16||KSU -15||47.5|
|#1 Ohio State vs. Rutgers||Sat, November 16||RUTG +51.5||60.5|
|#19 Wake Forest vs. #5 Clemson||Sat, November 16||CLEM -33||59.0|
|#17 Minnesota vs. #18 Iowa||Sat, November 16||IOWA -3||44.5|
|UCLA vs. #8 Utah||Sat, November 16||UTAH -21||51.5|
|New Mexico vs. #22 Boise State||Sat, November 16||BSU -28||59.0|
|Arizona vs. #7 Oregon||Sat, November 16||ORE - 27||68.5|
PJ Fleck on the fans storming the field after the win:
“That’s why you take a job. That was the whole vision, to be able to have that field swarmed on a top 5 team in the country and to put us undefeated. We want everybody to be like tonight every single game.” #Gophers @FOX9 pic.twitter.com/iXZa0kTasu
— Jeff Wald (@JeffWaldFox9) November 9, 2019
It’s not everyday someone sees their vision come to life. Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck earned himself a little more job security on the weekend with Minnesota’s 31-26 upset upset win over #4 Penn State.
Saban said playing Tua Tagovailoa was a medical decision and “his decision.”
“I think he played well, he made good plays in the game. I thought his mobility was probably not 100 percent. … I thought he was a warrior in what he did.”
— Charlie Potter (@Charlie_Potter) November 10, 2019
Alabama may have come up short against LSU, but head coach Nick Saban had nothing but praise for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who threw for 418 yards and had four touchdowns in his first game back from injury.
Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor shredded Iowa’s defense on Saturday en route to the ninth 200-yard game of his career. Here are three things you should know about the unstoppable Badgers junior:
- Taylor was a two-sport star at Salem High School, where he won 100 meter and 4×100 relay titles and was named South Jersey Times Boys Track Athlete of the Year as a junior and senior.
- Taylor was named Freshman of the Week eight times during his first season and holds the FBS record for most rushing yards in a season by a freshman.
- Most football stars have favorite players, but Taylor may be the only one with a favorite Prussian metaphysician. The Philosophy major is a big fan of Immanuel Kant, and has studied his works closely.