Two of the top teams in the American Athletic Conference take to the football field on Thursday and Friday. AAC West Division leading Houston hosts surprising Tulane on Nov. 15, while Memphis travels to Southern Methodist to take on the SMU Mustangs on Nov. 16. These games make from some tight NCAAF Week 12 picks.
Houston and Memphis battle each other next week on Nov. 23. Right now, Houston’s 4-2 in the division while Memphis is 3-3. What’s surprising is that like Houston, both Tulane and SMU are 4-2 in the AAC West. The division’s wide-open heading into the final two weeks of the College Football Regular Season.
Also on Friday, Nov. 16, the Boise State Broncos hope to prevent a relapse after their huge win over Fresno State last week. Boise stepped onto their blue field a +2.5 home dog. They left the azure pasture a 24-17 winner. The Broncos are still a game behind MWC Mountain Division leading Utah State. Boise can’t afford a slip up against a motivated New Mexico squad that the Broncos could easily overlook.
In addition to analyzing Tulane at Houston, Boise State at New Mexico, and Memphis at SMU, I also dive into Toledo battling Kent State on the road as a big favorite, and Lane Kiffin’s Florida Atlantic squad traveling to North Texas to take on the Mean Green.
Thursday, Nov. 15
Toledo Rockets -13 at Kent State Golden Flashes
The Golden Flashes have a 2-8 SU record, but they’re decent spread team at 6-4 ATS. They’re 3-0 ATS at home, which is why this game deserves a closer look than to just say that Toledo blows out Kent State. The Rockets don’t have an edge in the trends, going 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. The Golden Flashes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a straight up loss. I’m taking the points.
NCAAF Week 12 Picks: Kent State +13
Tulane Green Wave at #17 Houston Cougars -10.5
Tulane’s not only on a 4-game win streak, but they also dominated the AAC’s early season darling, the South Florida Bulls, on the road. The Green Wave might just be a good football team. The trends definitely give them the edge in this: Tulane’s 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on turf, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous, and 5-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Houston’s lost 2 in a row. I’m definitely taking the points.
NCAAF Week 12 Picks: Tulane +10.5
Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green -3
Lane Kiffin’s past coaching resume might have something to do with why the .500 SU Florida Atlantic Owls are an awful 3-7 ATS. The Owls are 1-4 ATS on the road. Although the Owls look like an easy play against, trends point to North Texas having a tough time covering in this one. The Mean Green are 1-5 ATS in their last 6, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after an SU loss. FAU has won their last couple and Kiffin’s got the defense playing great. I’ll take a shot on the Owls moneyline.
NCAAF Week 12 Picks: Florida Atlantic +140 ML
Friday, Nov. 16
Boise State Broncos -20 at New Mexico Lobos
There’s a chance Boise State plays down to its competition in Week 12. The Broncos were laser-focused in their 24-17 win over MWC West Division leading Fresno State in Week 11. Although Boise State impressed, the victory was only their third cover in their last 8 games. New Mexico’s only 1-3 ATS this season, but because the Broncos are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings, I’ll side with the Lobos. That’s a big point cushion to rest my head on.
NCAAF Week 12 Picks: New Mexico +20
Memphis Tigers -8.5 at SMU Mustangs
Memphis is only 1-3 ATS on the road this season. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 on Friday while also going 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. SMU should be fired up to beat Memphis, but the trends are much worse for the Mustangs than they are for the Tigers. SMU’s gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a straight up win. I wish I could make a case for SMU to cover, but I can’t. SMU has been a doormat for most of the year and this line is tight enough to side with Memphis.
NCAAF Week 12 Picks: Memphis -8.5