We’re once again looking for some big underdogs in Week 4 of the college football season. We’ve had some success in the first three weeks and there are a few games that provide value once again.
|Notre Dame||+15 (-110)||+430||Over 57 (-110)|
|Georgia||-15 (-110)||-610||Under 57 (-110)|
It’s the game of the week, and it should be. Notre Dame will venture between the hedges to face Georgia for a non-conference battle.
Georgia boasts a stout defense that has only allowed 7.7 points per game through three blowout victories, and its offense has blasted overmatched opponents for an average of 49.3 points per game
But I have seen this movie before, for the last 15 years—Georgia loses a big game early at home. Just three years ago Vanderbilt came into town as a huge underdog and stunned the Bulldogs 17-16. Let’s just say Vanderbilt isn’t Notre Dame.
Every year Notre Dame plays one of the toughest schedules in the nation, big road games are part of their identity and I think Notre Dame has a huge chance to spring the upset.
Boise State has dominated its conference—whether it was the Big West, WAC or Mountain West—for decades. What that means is their spreads are usually inflated, because the bookmakers recognize the public is more likely to bet a team it knows, rather than a team like Air Force.
The spread Friday night is a touchdown and Boise State is home. If Air Force was at home, and we took away the inflation, would Air Force be favored against Boise State?
When Troy meets Akron this weekend, I give Akron a big shot to win in front of its home fans. I like the way the Zips played in a Week 2 loss against a tough UAB team. They were trailing big for most of the game, but made a late rally in a 31-20 loss. Quarterback Kato Nelson looked good that day, with 359 yards passing, and came back last week to throw three touchdown passes in 45-24 loss at Central Michigan.
The results haven’t been great, but Akron has played steady. A boost from the home crowd and Troy playing on the road for the first time this season might be the recipe.
Here we go again. UCF made short work of us last week, when the Knights demolished Stanford, but I’ll give this angle one more chance before I back off. Pitt looked sharp in its last grudge match with Penn State. It was a heart breaking 17-10 loss, but Pitt had to take some positives away from playing a ranked opponent tough.
UCF has impressed so far but has to leave Florida for the first time this year, and the travel could be the angle we needed all along.
Les Miles has a long way to go at Kansas to make Jayhawks competitive enough to win a Big 12 title, and we took advantage of that with an outright upset from Coastal Carolina two weeks ago. But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t already made this team better, even though these aren’t his recruits.
Kansas looked much improved in a 48-24 upset victory at Boston College. It might be a slow process, but there has been progress.
West Virginia lost coach Dana Holgorsen and quarterback Will Grier, and I’m not yet sold on new QB Austin Kendall, despite his three touchdowns in a home win last week. Kansas doesn’t exactly sell out its home games these days, but the Jayhawks are dying to win a Big 12 game and this is a prime spot for an upset.
Look for the “Mad Hatter” to get Kansas a conference win.