Last year’s final four in the NFL reinforced the age off offense in the league.
Rules have been trending toward offense for years, and the recent emphasis on player safety has allowed for even more freedom of movement to offenses and prompted more penalties that provide the dreaded (or cheered) automatic first down.
Athletes are continuing to evolve (see: Saquon Barkley), and the proliferation of elite quarterback camps over the last two decades has had an impact. As we saw in that crazy Monday Night Football game between the Chiefs and Rams last year, the elite offenses of today’s game cannot be stopped.
Linesmakers and gamblers can be stubborn to change, however, so opportunities to capitalize on this evolution of the game are abundant. Overs, team totals, player prop overs and correlated parlays are all there for the taking.
The NFL is a quarterback-centric league and we have an entirely new collection of quarterbacks taking over the game. Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and other young guns are ushering in a new wave of the position (who predicted Josh Allen would run for 651 yards last year?). A generation of players who saw what Mike Vick was capable of is now remaking the position and their game in his image.
If there’s one thing I’ve learned in gambling, it’s that confusion and the unknown creates opportunity. Many of these new young quarterbacks are just that—unknown. But if you believe any of these young quarterbacks are exceptionally skilled, betting overs consistently should net you significant profits.
Even if you don’t think a quarterback is capable of winning games or getting an over ticket cashed, however, there is still money to be made. I think Jameis Winston is an excellent reader of defenses with a big-time arm but questionable decision making in the red zone. For Winston I like to look at his yardage total Overs when I think he can take advantage of a defense but not necessarily punch in scores (2017 Week 5 vs. the Patriots, for example).
Consider unique ways like this to take advantage of talented offensive weapons, because betting a game total Over isn’t the only way to capitalize on offensive talent.