No team has defied expectations more this season than the 49ers, who entered the season with distant +3500 odds to win the Super Bowl. Fast forward to 10 weeks later and San Francisco is 8-0 and has scintillating +700 odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy this February. The 49ers will put their perfect record on the line on Monday when they host the 7-2 Seattle Seahawks.
We have odds and analysis for that NFC West grudge match as well as all of the biggest Week 10 trends and storylines from around the National Football League.
The 2-6 Browns couldn’t right their sinking ship, despite kicking off a softer stretch of the schedule with a road slate against Denver.
Cleveland trailed the entire game and scored its only touchdown in the fourth quarter to bring it within five of Denver. Baker Mayfield completed 27-of-42 passes for 273 yards and registered his first outing of the season without an interception. Cleveland couldn’t get much going in the run game, though, as Nick Chubb averaged 3.3 yards on 20 carries.
The Browns square up against another stingy defense on Sunday, when they host the 6-2 Buffalo Bills.
In Sunday’s 24-9 onslaught of the Redskins, Bills QB Josh Allen completed all but six of his passes for 160 yards and one touchdown, while Devin Singletary racked up 95 yards and a score.
My favorite Devin Singletary run of the day:
*insert Chris Berman WHOOP*
— Dan Fetes (@danfetes) November 4, 2019
Singletary and Frank Gore should have an easy time against Cleveland’s rushing defense, which gives up 141.2 yards per game on the ground (third-worst in the NFL).
The Browns still head into Sunday’s matchup as two-point home favorites but are just 5-21-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record. The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Cleveland.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans
In Matt Moore’s second game as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, the veteran backup earned his first win of the season in a back-and-forth brawl against the Minnesota Vikings.
Moore completed 25 of 35 passes for 275 yards and one touchdown but needed better protection, as the Vikings sacked him five times for a loss of 45 yards. Tyreek Hill caught Moore’s only touchdown pass on a 41-yard bomb, and Damien Williams posted the Chiefs’ other score on a 91-yard run in the third quarter.
Tyreek Hill’s speed is INSANE. (Wait for it.) pic.twitter.com/NCKPm45rZM
— Jeff Darlington (@JeffDarlington) November 3, 2019
Surprisingly, the Chiefs’ feeble rushing defense held Dalvin Cook to 71 yards on 21 carries, and Stefon Diggs nearly disappeared on the field after logging back-to-back games with 140-plus receiving yards.
Kirk Cousins still managed to throw three touchdown passes and piled on 220 yards, but Harrison Butker’s precision kicking (4-of-4 field goals, 2-of-2 extra points) moved Kansas City past Minnesota.
Next the Chiefs face Tennessee on the road and may have Patrick Mahomes back in the saddle. The 4-5 Titans lost 30-20 at the Panthers on Sunday, in a game Carolina led 17-0 at halftime.
Ryan Tannehill got sacked four times and picked off twice, and new roster addition Ryan Succop missed all three of his field-goal attempts.
The Titans put up more total offensive yardage but had dug too deep of a hole to recover. Christian McCaffrey caused Tennessee its biggest headache, as he ran for 146 yards, two scores and caught another touchdown on a seven-yard pass from Kyle Allen.
The Chiefs enter as slight road favorites but are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven meetings with Tennessee. However, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four games.
Christian McCaffrey carried Carolina to a 30-20 beating of the Titans, boosting the third-year running back’s MVP odds. On Sunday, he’ll confront another MVP candidate, Aaron Rodgers, in a road trip to Lambeau Field to battle the 7-2 Packers.
Rodgers looked far from a superstar in Green Bay’s 26-11 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9. The veteran generated 161 passing yards, averaged 4.6 yards per completion (both season lows) and recorded one touchdown in the fourth quarter to help make the score look a little less insulting. Green Bay’s rushing attack was even worse, as it accumulated 45 yards on the day.
All of Aaron Rodgers 16 TD passes so far this season. 👇🔥
— GBP Daily (@GBPdaily) November 2, 2019
Matching the offense’s substandard performance, the Packers defense gave up 442 yards of total offense, let the Chargers reach field-goal range in three of their first four drives and gave up two scores to Melvin Gordon in the second half.
The Panthers own a top 10 passing defense and may give Rodgers even more trouble in Week 10. Carolina is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. The Panthers are also 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Green Bay, though the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four.
Thursday, November 7, 8:20 p.m. ET | RingCentral Coliseum
The 4-5 Chargers earned their second straight win in dominant fashion against the Packers and look to keep the streak alive on the road in Oakland.
The 4-4 Raiders pulled off a 31-24 victory against the Lions on Sunday, after rookie receiver Hunter Renfrow logged the game-winning touchdown with 2:04 remaining. Derek Carr threw for 289 yards and two scores, while Josh Jacobs reached the end zone twice and collected 120 yards on the ground.
The Raiders kept the Lions’ ground game at bay in Detroit’s second appearance without an injured Kerryon Johnson. Oakland will confront a greater challenge in containing Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler, who combined for 150 yards rushing against Green Bay.
“Yeah, I’m thinking I’m back.”
-Melvin Gordon pic.twitter.com/40U2OhEhEo
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 4, 2019
The Raiders’ pass defense is a major liability, as it’s allowing a league-worst 297.5 yards per game. That’s good news for the sixth-ranked Chargers passing offense, which averages 281.3 yards against opposing defenses.
The Chargers are one-point road favorites and 4-0 against the spread in their last four meetings in Oakland. The road team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, November 10, 8:20 p.m. ET | AT&T Stadium
The 6-3 Vikings came up just short against the Chiefs in Week 9 and seek redemption in a prime-time matchup at Dallas on Sunday night.
The Cowboys, 4-3, have been streaky the first half of the season, going from a three-win run to dropping the next three, then answering with a 37-10 beatdown of rival Philadelphia in Week 8.
Sunday’s matchup is a crucial game for both teams, but particularly Dallas, considering its upcoming schedule. The Cowboys will visit Detroit, New England, Chicago and Philly, and host the Bills, LA Rams and Redskins in AT&T Stadium.
Dallas is first in the NFL in total offense (437.9 yards per game) and ninth in defense (324.9 YPG). With the team getting healthy, the Cowboys might finally click and become a much stronger force, but expect a brutal showdown with Minnesota.
The Vikings also boast a top 10 offense and defense, and feature the No. 1 back in the NFL. Dalvin Cook has amassed 894 rushing yards, the most of any running back at this point in the season, and is just one behind Christian McCaffrey’s league-leading 10 rushing TDs.
Most 100-yard rushing games since 2016:
Ezekiel Elliott: 23
Jordan Howard: 14
Todd Gurley: 12
LeSean McCoy: 12
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) October 30, 2019
Ezekiel Elliott has been less effective for Dallas but broke the 100-yard rushing mark in his last two games, against the Jets and the Eagles.
The home team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between Dallas and Minnesota, and the favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11. In their last encounter, Dallas beat Minnesota 17-15 on the road, back in December 2016.
Russell Wilson tossed a 10-yard pass to Jacob Hollister to seal the deal in Seattle’s 40-34 overtime victory against Tampa Bay on Sunday.
— Samuel Gold (@SamuelRGold) November 4, 2019
The front-runner for MVP accounted for five touchdowns, 378 passing yards and one 21-yard run. He connected with Hollister on two of his scores, and paired up with Tyler Lockett for two more.
Tampa Bay kept it close, however, as Bucs wideout Mike Evans pulled in 180 yards and one touchdown, and Ronald Jones II and Dare Ogunbowale broke past Seattle’s defense for 12 more points.
If the Seahawks experienced issues against the 2-6 Bucs, they should feel concerned about their date with the undefeated 49ers. Seattle’s NFC West rival is second in rushing (171.1 YPG) and first in total defense (241.0 YPG). The 49ers also rank second in scoring defense, with 12.8 points per contest.
San Francisco is coming off a 28-25 road win over Arizona on Thursday Night Football, in which Jimmy Garoppolo threw a season-high four touchdown passes and 317 yards.
The 49ers are favored by six at home but have lost nine of the last 10 against the Seahawks. Seattle is 11-3-1 against the spread in the last 15 meetings and 5-2 ATS in the last seven in San Francisco.
NFL Betting Trends
Looking to build your bankroll? These are the numbers you need to know:
- Home favorites have won just 60% of their games SU in 2019. By contrast, road favorites have won 67% of their games SU
- Road teams have won 56% of their games ATS in 2019. Road dogs have fared even better, winning 60% of their games ATS in 2019
- 54% of all non-overtime games have gone Under the projected point total in 2019
- The Saints and Rams have covered 75% of the time ATS in 2019
- The Falcons, Browns, Bears, Bucs and Jets have covered just 25% of the time ATS in 2019
NFL Week 10 Schedule
Cancel all your plans this Sunday. Seriously, you won’t be going anywhere.
|Chargers vs. Raiders||Thu, November 7 @8:20 PM||OAK +1||47.5|
|Ravens vs. Bengals||Sun, November 10 @1PM||CIN +10.5||46.5|
|Bills vs. Browns||Sun, November 10 @1PM||CLE -2||41.5|
|Lions vs. Bears||Sun, November 10 @1PM||CHI -3||43.5|
|Giants vs. Jets||Sun, November 10 @1PM||NYJ +2.5||43.0|
|Chiefs vs. Titans||Sun, November 10 @1PM||TEN +3.5||N/A|
|Cardinals vs. Buccaneers||Sun, November 10 @1PM||TB -4.5||53.5|
|Falcons vs. Saints||Sun, November 10 @1PM||NO -12||51.0|
|Dolphins vs. Colts||Sun, November 10 @4:05PM||IND -11.5||43.0|
|Rams vs. Steelers||Sun, November 10 @4:25PM||PIT +4||45.0|
|Panthers vs. Packers||Sun, November 10 @4:25PM||GB -5.5||48.0|
|Vikings vs. Cowboys||Sun, November 10 @8:20PM||DAL -3||47.0|
|Seahawks vs. 49ers||Mon, November 11 @8:15PM||N/A||N/A|
Get to Know Brandon Allen
Broncos quarterback Brandon Allen threw for 193 yards and two touchdowns in his first career start on Sunday. Here are three things you need to know about Denver’s fresh-faced QB:
- Allen was a four-year starter at Arkansas, where he finished second in program history in career pass completions and attempts and third in completion percentage.
- Allen’s father, Bobby, was an outstanding athlete in his own right. He earned three varsity letters while playing kicker, quarterback and outside linebacker at Virginia Tech. He presently works at Arkansas, where he serves as the Razorbacks’ director of high school and NFL relations.
- Allen isn’t your typical jock. The Fayetteville native was named to the SEC Fall Academic Honor Roll in 2012, 2013 and 2014.
— NICK HAMILTON (@NickHamiltonLA) November 4, 2019
The Chargers brought the Packers’ four-game win streak to an abrupt halt on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers & Co. will have a chance to bounce back this week against Carolina.
“I felt like when Lil Wayne found Drake”
— Nick Rothschild (@nick_rothschild) November 4, 2019
Von Miller didn’t hold back in his praise for Brandon Allen, who led the Broncos to a 24-19 win over the Browns in his first career start.
“We’re 1-7, we feel like crap” – Adam Gase pic.twitter.com/PZAtxf0CqD
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) November 3, 2019
If nothing else, you have to give Jets head coach Adam Gase credit for his honesty. The man knows how to call a spade a spade.
Three and Out
Josh Allen, Kyle Allen and Brandon Allen all shined on Sunday, marking the first time in NFL history that three quarterbacks with the same surname all won on the same day. Without further ado, here are the three most popular family names in the National Football League:
- Williams (48): Not only are there nearly 50 Williams in the NFL, but four of them are named Darrel, Darrell, Darrell and Daryl. Try keeping that straight.
- Smith (46): Technically there are 45 Smiths in the NFL, but we’re letting them claim Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster off waivers as an honorary 46th member.
- Johnson (45): You could do far worse than rolling out an NFL roster full of players named Johnson, especially with standouts like Duke Johnson, A.J. Johnson and Kerryon Johnson.