Tom Brady may not be a fan of New England’s offense, but there’s still plenty to like about the Patriots, who are now 9-1 following a decisive 17-10 victory over the Eagles. Bill Belichick’s crew will have a chance to work out the kinks on Sunday when they take on the suddenly resurgent Dallas Cowboys in a matchup of division leaders.
We have odds and analysis for that game as well as all of the biggest Week 12 trends and storylines from around the National Football League.
The New Orleans Saints bounced back after a bad loss to the Falcons in Week 11 to defeat fellow NFC South rival Tampa Bay, 34-17.
Alvin Kamara began to look like his old self, as he led the team in rushing, with 75 yards, and caught another 10 passes for 47. Drew Brees also assembled three scores through the air and connected on one with Michael Thomas, who piled on 114 receiving yards on eight receptions.
The Saints’ D picked off turnover-prone Jameis Winston four times and stuffed the Bucs rushing attack, which mustered just 36 yards on the day.
If New Orleans can repeat its defensive performance against Carolina on Sunday, it should have no issues grabbing a win over another NFC South foe. The 5-5 Panthers experienced the same trouble the Saints did against the lowly Falcons and fell 29-3 at home in Week 11.
Kyle Allen’s 4th INT of the day. Just another brutal decision and throw pic.twitter.com/uhivypIwff
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) November 17, 2019
Kyle Allen completed 31 of 50 passes for 325 yards but got picked off four times and sacked another five. MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey couldn’t help the Panthers find the end zone either, despite 70 rushing yards and another 121 on 11 receptions.
The Panthers defense allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 311 yards and one TD, and gave up a 73-yard punt return touchdown to Kenjon Barner. Up until the fourth quarter, the Falcons possessed a 26-0 lead, before Joey Slye nailed a 31-yard field goal for Carolina’s only points in the contest.
The NFC South-leading Saints are 8.5-point favorites at home and are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games overall. However, in this series between New Orleans and Carolina, the underdog is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Panthers are 14-5 ATS in the last 19 games in New Orleans.
After a nine-week absence since breaking his collarbone against the Kansas City Chiefs, Super Bowl LII MVP Nick Foles put an end to Minshew Mania and returned as the starter of the Jaguars.
In his first game back, Foles registered 296 yards through the air, two touchdown passes (both to DJ Chark) and one interception. The Jags gained an early seven-point lead in the first quarter, but the Colts turned it up from there, as Jacksonville struggled to produce on the ground.
Nick Foles ➡️ DJ Chark for the TD! pic.twitter.com/9yBUnwfx9Q
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) November 17, 2019
Leonard Fournette tallied a season-low 23 rushing yards, though he caught all seven of his targets for another 34. The Colts rushing attack, meanwhile, exploded for 264 yards, with both Marlon Mack and Jonathan Williams recording 100-plus-yard outings.
The Jaguars dropped to 4-6 following their 33-13 defeat in Indy and next face a well-rested Titans team that sat out Week 11 on bye—a week after downing the Chiefs, 35-32.
Ryan Tannehill played savior, as he found receiver Adam Humphries for a 23-yard touchdown pass with 23 seconds left in the home clash with the Chiefs. Tannehill then ran the ball into the end zone for a two-point conversion to give the Titans a decisive three-point lead.
The 5-5 Titans met AFC South adversary Jacksonville in Week 3, in a game Jacksonville won 20-7. Back then Gardner Minshew owned the starting spot at quarterback, and Marcus Mariota still took snaps for the Titans.
The Jaguars sacked Mariota nine times in that September matchup, but they failed to get much out of the run game, as Fournette tallied 66 yards on 15 carries.
The Titans opened as three-point home favorites over Jacksonville. The home team is 7-2-1 against the spread in the last 10 meetings, while the Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in the last five and 0-3-1 ATS in the last four in Tennessee.
The New England Patriots visited Philadelphia on Sunday for the next in a stretch of five difficult games on the Pats’ schedule. New England entered fresh off a bye, one week after dropping its first loss to Baltimore, but still didn’t seem to find much solution to its issues on offense.
The Patriots’ lone touchdown pass of the game didn’t even come from Tom Brady. Instead Julian Edelman found Phillip Dorsett for a 15-yard shot to the end zone on a trick play to give the Pats the lead in the third quarter.
Belichick on Julian Edelman’s 2nd career touchdown pass
— Chad Amaral (@Chad_Amaral) November 18, 2019
Nick Folk accounted for the Pats’ other nine points on three field goals, and the defense carried the team by holding off Carson Wentz and company. The Philly QB went 20-of-40 for 214 yards and one touchdown to tight end Dallas Goedert.
The Eagles ground game hardly got anything going, as Miles Sanders and Boston Scott combined for 64 yards on 18 attempts, while Jordan Howard sat on the sidelines with a shoulder injury.
On Sunday, New England’s defense will get a tougher task in the Dallas Cowboys’ No. 1 offense. The Cowboys average 444.6 yards per game, and garnered 519 yards of offense against the Lions in Week 11.
Quarterback Dak Prescott threw for 444 yards, three touchdowns and rushed for 18 yards in the 35-27 road victory. The Dallas run game stalled, however, as Ezekiel Elliott pulled off just 45 yards on 16 carries.
Dallas lit up the Lions’ 30th-ranked passing defense, but confront a much different challenge in the Pats’ No. 2-ranked unit. The Patriots permit 152.6 yards per game through the air and allow an average of 97.3 yards on the ground.
New England is a six-point home favorite and won 30-6 in Dallas the last time these two squared up, back in October 2015. The favorite is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings, and the Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in the last five.
Thursday, November 21, 8:20 p.m. ET | NRG Stadium
The Indianapolis Colts have been unlucky all season, and not just because of Andrew Luck’s unexpected decision to retire. In Indy’s Week 9 loss to the Steelers, Jacoby Brissett became the latest Colts player to get bitten by the injury bug and sat out the entire Week 10 defeat to the bottom-dwelling Dolphins.
Brissett returned for the Colts’ home slate against Jacksonville and helped the team to a 33-13 win on 15-of-24 passing and one touchdown. Indy’s rushing attack performed the brunt of the work and amassed 264 yards and three scores.
Jacoby Brissett sure looks healthy pic.twitter.com/5fDCklt46E
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 18, 2019
On Thursday night, the Colts meet division rival Houston for a pivotal AFC South showdown. Both 6-4, Indy and Houston already played each other in Week 7, in a game the Colts won 30-23. In that matchup, Brissett threw for 326 yards and four touchdowns, back when he still had receiver T.Y. Hilton at his disposal.
Since October 27, Hilton has been sidelined with an injured calf muscle. On top of that, receivers Parris Campbell and Devin Funchess have sat out with lingering injuries, and running back Marlon Mack suffered a fracture in his hand on Sunday.
The Texans will see a much different lineup on Thursday, and the short week won’t give the Colts much time to adapt.
Houston is favored by 3.5 points and is 7-1-1 against the spread in its last nine games following an ATS loss. The Colts are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings overall and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games in Houston. The road team is also 8-2-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
Sunday, November 24, 8:20 p.m. ET | Levi’s Stadium
In their second encounter of the season, the San Francisco 49ers once again had trouble putting the Arizona Cardinals to bed. In Week 9, Arizona’s comeback attempt fell just short in a 28-25 loss at home, but on Sunday, the Cardinals held the lead up until the last 30 seconds of regulation.
With the Niners down three, Jeff Wilson Jr. caught a 25-yard pass from Jimmy Garoppolo to put San Francisco up 30-26. Then D.J. Reed Jr. recovered a fumble and returned it for a touchdown to ice the win, 36-26.
The 49ers now own a 9-1 record, tied with the Patriots for best in the league. Green Bay isn’t much farther behind at 8-2, and is the projected No. 2 seed, behind the Niners, in the NFC playoff picture.
The Packers may be the road team, but they at least get the advantage of an extra week of rest heading into the game. Green Bay beat the Panthers 24-16 in Week 10, as Aaron Jones recorded three rushing touchdowns and ran for 93 yards. The Packers D, on the other hand, surrendered 427 total yards of offense and let Panthers star back Christian McCaffrey run for 108.
Aaron Jones shoulda been dead but dude is just tougher and faster and wants it more than everyone. pic.twitter.com/sATfxsElL8
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) November 12, 2019
The Packers defense has given up an average of 384.7 yards per game (28th in the league), whereas the 49ers surrender the second fewest yards at 253.0.
Green Bay last defeated San Francisco, 33-30, in October 2018 and heads into the matchup as three-point road underdogs. The Packers are 5-0 against the spread versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. They are also 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in San Francisco and 11-5-2 ATS in the last 18 overall.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams
Everywhere Lamar Jackson goes, “M-V-P” chants follow him. On Sunday against the Houston Texans, the second-year quarterback dazzled onlookers, including teammate Mark Ingram, in the Baltimore Ravens’ 41-7 onslaught of Houston. (Ingram reference:
“MVP frontrunner. If anybody else got something different to say about that they can come see me.”
Mark Ingram the hype man 😂pic.twitter.com/nRjkl3am85
— Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) November 17, 2019
Jackson completed all but seven of his passes for 222 yards, four scores and ran for another 86 on nine carries. Ingram hauled in two of those TD passes. Tight end Mark Andrews caught another and Seth Roberts converted his only target into a score.
Fellow MVP hopeful Deshaun Watson didn’t enjoy the same kind of outing as Jackson, as the Texans QB got sacked six times, threw one interception, lost a fumble and completed 18 of 29 passes for just 169 yards.
The Ravens and Jackson next get a primetime matchup in Los Angeles on Monday night and look to extend their six-win streak. The 6-4 Rams beat up the 4-6 Bears on Sunday Night Football and desperately need to string together some victories over the next month to have any hope of stealing a playoff spot.
In Sunday’s 17-7 win against Chicago, Todd Gurley poured on 97 yards on 25 attempts and one touchdown, and Malcolm Brown found the end zone in his second game back from injury.
The Rams were far from explosive in the passing game, though, as Jared Goff attempted just 18 passes and connected on 11 of them for 173 yards. Goff didn’t record a touchdown, but he did tack on his 10th interception of the season, bringing him one shy of his TD total in 2019.
On Monday, Los Angeles must confront the No. 2 offense in the league (428.6 yards per game) and No. 1 rushing attack (203.8 YPG). The Rams defense is fifth in the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed, at 89.1 per game, but the Ravens are nearly as good at defending the run. They give up 94.3 yards per contest.
These two franchises haven’t met in the regular season since November 2015, when the Ravens won 16-13 at home. The favorite is 3-0-1 against the spread in the last four meetings in this series, and the home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five.
Bet on Ravens vs. Rams here.
NFL Betting Trends
Looking to build your bankroll? These are the numbers you need to know:
- Home favorites have won just 61% of their games SU in 2019. By contrast, road favorites have won 66% of their games SU
- Road teams have won 57% of their games ATS in 2019. Road dogs have fared even better, winning 60% of their games ATS in 2019
- 53% of all non-overtime games have gone Under the projected point total in 2019
- The Cardinals, Packers, Patriots, Rams and Saints have been the NFL’s two most reliable teams against the spread in 2019, covering 70% of the time
- The Buccaneers (2-8-0) have covered just 20% of the time ATS in 2019, but have hit the Over 80% of the time
- The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in 2019 when playing on the road
NFL Week 12 Schedule
Cancel all your plans this Sunday. Seriously, you won’t be going anywhere.
|Colts vs. Texans||Thu, November 21 @8:20 PM||HOU -3.5||45.5|
|Buccaneers vs. Falcons||Sun, November 24 @1PM||ATL -4||52.0|
|Broncos vs. Bills||Sun, November 24 @1PM||BUF -5||36.5|
|Giants vs. Bears||Sun, November 24 @1PM||CHI -6.5||40.5|
|Steelers vs. Bengals||Sun, November 24 @1PM||CIN +6||39.5|
|Dolphins vs. Browns||Sun, November 24 @1PM||CLE -11||44.5|
|Panthers vs. Saints||Sun, November 24 @1PM||NO -8.5||47.0|
|Seahawks vs. Eagles||Sun, November 24 @1PM||PHI -2||49.0|
|Lions vs. Redskins||Sun, November 24 @1PM||WAS +3.5||41.5|
|Raiders vs. Jets||Sun, November 24 @1PM||NYJ +3.5||47.0|
|Jaguars vs. Titans||Sun, November 24 @4:05PM||TEN -3||41.5|
|Cowboys vs. Patriots||Sun, November 24 @4:25PM||NE -6||46.0|
|Packers vs. 49ers||Sun, November 24 @8:20PM||SF -3||45.5|
|Ravens vs. Rams||Mon, November 25 @8:15PM||N/A||N/A|
Get to Know Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs made history on Sunday by becoming the first Raiders rookie to record four 100-yard rushing games. Here are three things you need to know about Oakland’s not-so-secret weapon:
- Jacobs attended McLain High School in Tulsa, Oklahoma, where he averaged 15.1 yards per carry and 245.8 yards per game as a senior.
- Just how tough is Jacobs? As a sophomore at Alabama, he ran for 284 yards and one touchdown despite playing most of the season on a broken ankle.
- Jacobs set the Raiders rookie record for most rushing yards in a season after just his eighth game.
“I don’t think it matters what I think, it matters what we do.”
– Tom Brady on if he is concerned with Patriots’ offense pic.twitter.com/atD19HfTSS
— NESN (@NESN) November 18, 2019
The Patriots may have the best point differential in the NFL, but Tom Brady still isn’t satisfied. The veteran QB believes New England needs to cut down on turnovers and be more efficient in the red zone.
“I guess I felt like the old Todd,” Todd Gurley said after he had 133 all purpose yards on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/HWNj1VTJuh
— Lindsey Thiry (@LindseyThiry) November 18, 2019
Todd Gurley ran roughshod over the Bears on Sunday, picking up 133 all-purpose yards on 28 touches.
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) November 18, 2019
Don’t worry Kyler, you’ll be used to losing if you remain in Arizona long enough.
Three and Out
The Bengals are now 0-10 after losing to the Raiders on Sunday. Without further ado, here are the longest losing streaks in NFL history:
- The Chicago Cardinals endured a tortuous 29-game skid from 1942 to 1945. The streak likely would have been even worse were it not for the fact that the league only played 10-game seasons at the time.
- The expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers got a rough welcome to the NFL by losing their first 26 games. They managed to shed their losing ways soon after, however, and captured the NFC Central in 1979.
- The Raiders and Lions share the third spot on our list. Oakland lost 19 straight in 1961 and 1962 and Detroit dropped 19 as well between 2007 and 2009. The 2008 Lions remain one of only five NFL teams to record a winless season.